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What could be happening is that the Fed and large institutions are becoming more sensitive to the possibility that credit itself is about to do the tightening that another rate hike would otherwise deliver. If a group of leveraged companies is suddenly struggling to refinance, spreads widen, lenders demand better terms, credit lines get drawn, new deals are postponed, and marginal borrowers lose access altogether. At that point the system can tighten very quickly without the Fed moving another 25 basis points. That would explain why officials could still sound concerned about inflation yet suddenly become far less eager to hike in October. Publicly, Williams and Jefferson have emphasized patience and more time to assess conditions, while market odds of an October hike fell from roughly 70% to about 25%. I do not think the hidden problem would be one giant bank already failing. I think it would be a refinancing window starting to close for weaker corporate borrowers, with private credit and bank funding lines becoming the transmission mechanism. The visible bankruptcy would come later. The first real sign would be financing that suddenly cannot get done.

onechancefreedm ↗