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These are the questions you need to ask yourself if you want to understand the reality of this labor market rather than just react to the headline. We have already had 4 negative nonfarm payroll months in the last 12 months. If September’s tiny +29,000 is revised below zero, that becomes 5 negative months in 12. Outside of the post recession lag where payrolls can keep falling after the broader economy has already bottomed, that kind of clustering is historically associated with recessionary labor deterioration, not a healthy mid cycle expansion. So ask yourself 3 things… 1. If breakeven job growth near zero makes +29,000 reassuring, why did unemployment still rise because the labor force grew faster than employment? 2. If the private labor market is strengthening, why did private diffusion fall below 50, manufacturing diffusion fall to 46.5, aggregate private hours stay completely flat and temporary help fall another 10,900? 3. If this is merely a Labor Day calendar quirk, where is the quantified BLS evidence showing how many jobs that effect supposedly removed? July has already been revised negative, August was revised lower and the 3 month payroll average is only about 51,000. One weak print can be noise. Repeated negative months, deteriorating breadth, flat hours and persistent downward revisions occurring together are a completely different signal.

onechancefreedm ↗