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IOW, the bottleneck 🍾 is increasingly refining capacity, not🚫simply crude🛢️. The key 🔑 variable for inflation is no longer just… Tanker 🛥️ traffic through Hormuz; or the Brent🛢️price. It is increasingly… Russian 🇷🇺 refinery outage time & further Ukrainian 🇺🇦 strikes; global refinery utilization; & refining margins on diesel ⛽️& jet🛩️ -fuel “cracks.” Crude oil🛢️ may look calm while the market still faces an energy shock. Gasoline ⛽️ & diesel prices may remain high even without another dramatic Brent 🛢️ spike. This is potentially > inflationary than a simple crude 🛢️price shock because trucking 🛻 , aviation ✈️ , agriculture 🧑‍🌾 & manufacturing 🛠️ depend directly on refined fuels.