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Analysts at Signum Global Advisors led by Andrew Bishop have created a "TACO index" to attempt to discern when Pres Trump might de-escalate the Iran situation. The index is comprised of Brent crude, the 10-year yield, the number of Hormuz crossings, and the SPX. In backtesting they found that a 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviation move — or an average of 2.9 standard deviations -- has seen action from the President in the past. Putting that in today’s terms, the analysts find it’s not yet time to TACO — but it’s getting closer. “Extrapolating linearly would suggest that a TACO could happen as early as July 22 and ‘should’ happen no later than July 30 (unless conditions materially improve, which seems unlikely) – with history suggesting July 26 as most likely,” they said.

neilsethinew ↗