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I think $AAPL will guide September revenue inline to slightly higher than the Street. That outlook will be impacted by two new forces, a headwind of the likely shift to a staggered iPhone release schedule over the next six months, and the tailwind of the price increase. I expect the net of those should results in the overall revenue guide for September to be inline to slightly better than the Street, which now sits up 12% y/y. My optimistic outlook may come across as aggressive considering the high bar, with the Street looking for 21% iPhone growth in June, and 18% in September, compared to the segment that was up on average 2% per year from FY22-FY25. The reason for my optimism: 1. iPhone is riding the upgrade wave from the FY21 monster 39% growth. 2. The staggered upgrade schedule will force people who have historically bought the new lower priced model and need a phone now to trade up to a Pro model. I expect fractional at best shipments of the foldable phone in September. 3. The price increase will likely average 15%. While that jump will soften demand, the next effect should still be a net positive.
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