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AI:AC hypothesis is a solid hypothesis, as it’s probably the best proxy for a country’s ability to build out new energy infrastructure. USA built 80GW of new energy generation for the AC build out in 70s and 80s. Globally there are 4 technologies that will keep driving electricity demand higher over the next 15-25 years: AI - Artificial Intelligence EV - Electric Vehicles AC - Air Conditioning GA - General Automation (the actuators) These four will play out at different times, in different orders, in different regions. AC and EV are sigmoids under demographic ceilings but AI and GA are sigmoids that really escape any demographic limits. Currently global GDP is about $125 trillion and the world spends about $3.5 trillion annually on electricity. Of the $3.5T about $1 trillion of that is transmission and about $2.5 trillion is generation. The consensus is that the world needs to double electricity production from 30,000TWh/yr to 60,000TWh/yr over the next 20 years. Now doubling the volume doesn’t mean electricity spending goes from $3.5 trillion to $7.0 trillion because this is demand driven expansion it’s going to happen under supply constrained pricing. This is what we are already seeing with Chips and Memory suddenly jumping to 70% margins. In the medium term, electricity transmission + generation is going to jump to 70% margin in free market conditions. Demand is expected to double and pricing will triple (shift from 5% margin to 70% margin). This means the global economy will WANT to spend $20 trillion on electrons. This is what the math behind an industrial revolution looks like, if you have studied the economics of past industrial revolutions you can learn how these things play out. You can’t get perfect foresight, but certainly directional and scalar foresight. There will be energy companies that do trillions of dollars of revenue at large margins. I expect that 30-40 years from now, there will be 12-20 companies that represent 60-70% of world GDP. I think the most interesting thing is to figure out what those 12 companies might be, and then to go out and try to build one of them. I think (one persons opinion) under the old regime electrons were about 3% of global GDP, but under the new technological regime, post industrial revolution, electrons will be about 10% of global GDP. Electrons will be the general substrate of the economy, and by 2040 economic size will shift from being demographic limited to electron limited. What makes a big country a big country is about to shift from population to energy.

Object_Zero_ ↗