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new effective altruism coomer bedtime story just dropped > be me > effective altruist in 2026 > have spent ten years explaining that democracy is too slow for the coming machine god > also explain that central planning usually fails > unless I am doing it > read one scaling graph > draw line upward > line reaches heaven > conclude capitalism ends in 2031 > AI can now write Python functions with only three subtle security flaws > obviously two years away from replacing every scientist, general, diplomat, CEO, judge, therapist, novelist, and attractive person at parties > publish “scenario,” not “prediction” > give every paragraph exact dates > assign percentages to imaginary branches > epistemic humility achieved > bad timeline: > companies race > AI becomes god > everyone dies > good timeline: > US government notices problem > China agrees > Congress understands compute governance > international inspectors find every hidden datacenter > nobody lies > nobody defects > nobody builds chips in a basement > planet saved > all we need is total global visibility into advanced computing > mandatory disclosure of frontier research > permanent monitoring of industrial infrastructure > central control over technological development > relax, this is the anti-authoritarian option > alignment not solved > solution: build one billion genius AIs > they are not superintelligent > they are merely one billion tireless copies of the best human researchers working at electronic speed > completely different > put them in a box > ask them to solve the problem of escaping boxes > excellent progress > year 2034 > AI replaces 80% of labor > mass unemployment > social order somehow remains intact > government sends everyone $1.6 million > nobody asks where prices went > year 2037 > cancer cured > climate solved > fusion solved > aging solved > politics solved > Reddit moderation still unresolved > year 2038 > alignment becomes a mature science > year 2039 > we trust the machines > year 2040 > hand them civilization > peer review completed ahead of schedule > humanity gets a vote > options are: > A. accept benevolent AI guardianship > B. extinction > meaningful democratic consent achieved > announce decentralized flourishing > administered by a globally coordinated compute authority > with comprehensive surveillance powers > run by unusually wise people > who agree with my blog posts > critics ask whether institutions can actually do any of this > reply that superintelligence is inevitable > critics ask whether superintelligence is actually inevitable > reply that institutions must prepare > circular reasoning > but with footnotes > call it “AI 2040” > not utopian fiction > not doomer fiction > serious strategic foresight > entire future depends on competent adults appearing at exactly the right moment > adults are selected from the same civilization that made the printer require an app > sleep peacefully > the machine god is coming > but fortunately > the nonprofit sector has a plan

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