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I'm perplexed at why people who I know are smarter than me, including the authors, buy the epistemic strategy used in the AI 2040 scenario, in which, tl;dr, the famous METR time horizon plot predicts eschatological doom. I don't believe the authors have sufficiently grappled with why the radiologists and programmers still have their jobs, and why baristas haven't been replaced by automatic espresso machines Or even why we haven't seen more small-scale scheming / reward hacking / misalignment damages due to the use of coding agents across Big Tech, in which we've already granted such agents significant autonomy. I think if these gaps were more deeply considered they'd be making a more nuanced and less extreme argument. In the meantime I'm concerned that resources, advocacy and governance are being influenced by their conceptual model.
joshua_saxe ↗