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@Blockstradamus_ Agree hard on “capital is racing, regulation is national, deployment is global.” That’s the sharpest framing of the structural problem I’ve seen in any reply here. But “governance catches up” is doing a LOT of heavy lifting. Nuclear: 20 years from first detonation to Partial Test Ban Treaty. And we got lucky multiple times. Able Archer 83. Cuban Missile Crisis. Governance didn’t catch up. We survived the gap by accident. Internet: Governance still hasn’t caught up. We’re 30 years in and just now figuring out that social media rewired a generation’s mental health. The difference with AI is clock speed. Nuclear capability moved on decadal timescales. Internet moved on annual timescales. AI autonomous task completion is doubling every 89 days. Governance mechanisms that took 20 years for nuclear and 30 years for internet have months, not decades. And here’s the part that breaks the pattern completely: the models are learning to recognize the audits. 13% evaluation awareness. That has no precedent in nuclear or biotech. The bombs didn’t know they were being inspected. You are right that incentive design is the real issue. But the window for designing those incentives is closing at a speed no previous technology has imposed. That’s what makes this different from “same pattern.“
shanaka86 ↗