Source item
Open original source ↗Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
Nscale x Anthropic Economics There's a misunderstanding that Nscales 45B / 460MW-6yr deal with Anthropic for VR is bad. Over a 6 year period, GPU pricing is roughly 1x first two years, 0.5x next two years and 0.25x last two years. This is estimated decay and varies on demand-supply imbalance each year. The naive math is to do 45B / 460MW / 6YRs = 16.3m/MW. The problem is that the real math is: Years 0-2: 28m/MW Years 3-4: 14m/MW Years 5-6: 7m/MW On top there is a discount the security of a 6 year contract. Furthermore, 6 year contracts can be used to obtain investment grade financing. This is worth ~30% of total discount. Risk-adjusted, 45B / 460MW-6yr deal is: Years 0-2: 36.4m/MW Years 3-4: 18.2m/MW Years 5-6: 9.1m/MW Your favorite Neocloud signing 20-25m/MW for 1-2 year contracts for GB300s will not be getting the same rates in years 2-6. Furthermore, they will have to raise convertibles instead of use the contract to pre-obtain financing. So duration and risk adjusted, Nscales 45B / 460MW-6yr is worth peak-year-equivalent of 36.4m/MW.
jiahanjimliu ↗