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Open original source ↗My $0.02. A mega-VC with $5-10B annual funds is really searching for only one thing: a company they can pile over $1b into with a potential for 5-10X on the $1b. With this, seed fund is inconsequential money used to increase the odds of main objective. You are collateral damage.
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Seed math is broken Median post-money at seed last year: $14.8M (Carta) Seed-to-A conversion rate: 13% (Carta) That implies a risk-adjusted A valuation of $114M But the median post-money at A? Just $56M (It’s actually worse once you factor in option pool refresh and post-seed bridges) So why do VCs keep piling into seed? 1) Belief that breakouts will be fast/big enough to outrun the math 2) Hope that ownership can be fixed later by doubling down 3) Everyone thinks they’re better than the median Most funds won’t make this work
Hadley ↗