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The leading AI has already forked into two options. A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens. B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens. If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will happen: 1. American companies spending 50-100x will at some point become financially impaired and the stock market will crater. This is the equivalent of the US Government saying we can only buy oil at $800/barrel even when the free market sells the same oil for $80/barrel. 2. In the short term, the revenues of the Closed American Labs may remain hi. But then their revenue will also crater because their customers in the US will be impaired and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions. This would be a terribly self-defeating form of intervention if it were to happen.
chamath ↗