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Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
patrick_oshag ↗