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Open original source ↗The guy who has never predicted a presidential election accurately chastises me for calling 2016 within 10bps 20202 within 80 bps and 2024 perfectly.
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What's that supposed to mean? Don't trust the polls? Look at markets. Look at elections like Wisconsin. Look at how few deals have been cut on a tariff strategy that you thought would be genius. You're completely trapped in an epistemic bubble where you can't be proven wrong.
NateSilver538 ↗