Source item
Open original source ↗Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
"The chart below compares the actual vote results (blue line) in the seven battleground states to the final Real Clear Politics average (yellow line) for those states, as well as the final predictions of ABC News 538 (green line) and polling analyst Nate Silver (turquoise line), with the average of Rasmussen Reports battle ground surveys (purple line). As you can see, the RCP average was substantially below the actual total (i.e., underestimating Trump) in every battleground state. But the numbers from both 538 and Nate Silver were actually worse than the RCP average, which is to say, their statistical models – which claim superior accuracy based on weighting different polls by “quality” – actually introduced MORE bias (against Trump) than the average poll." Election 2024: How Did We Do? - https://t.co/LR8pJDh2CY
Rasmussen_Poll ↗