Chamath Palihapitiya

As said earlier, AGI is now at hand so these moves are logical.

Yup

Pretty cool.

In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade. Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of the AI sovereignty debate (ie leaking your alpha into the AIs of point solutions by some random employee on your team) and will cause bottoms up adoption to largely be stamped out in favor of top down. The final nail in the coffin will be CFOs wrapping corporate cards with smart filters so any tool that has downstream IP/alpha leakage won’t be authorized anyways.

A meme has to travel far to reach my wife…

Overwhelmingly most VCs are terrible practitioners of the craft. “This is best demonstrated by the paucity of DPI that has been generated by most recent fund vintages. In each of the 2019 and 2020 vintages, for instance, median DPIs are still barely over zero, and less than half of all funds have begun to return any capital at all to their LPs. The 2017 and 2018 cohorts are the only recent vintages with much DPI to speak of, and even then, the return profiles remain relatively slight. Across those two vintages, less than 20% of funds have yet reached a 1x DPI, marking the point at which fund LPs start to earn a profit, rather than simply get…

🐐 Congratulations @JasonKoon!!!

If you are an enterprise product or engineering leader evaluating Software Factory, come join our Q&A on Aug 12.

The Build vs Buy Math Just Flipped For thirty years a software renewal was a simple question of renew or shop for a cheaper seat, because building the thing yourself was never realistic. That has changed. Gartner now puts roughly a fifth of enterprise SaaS spend, around $234B, at risk of being done a different way by 2030. The reason is that the cost of building the workflows a company actually needs can now be done with tools like Software Factory. Keep renting commodity systems, and your business will perform like a commodity. Building software around the processes that are unique to how your business runs is worth pricing out before y…

If I were the company on the right I would try to kill every company that is like the one on the left. This way, the company on the right can make trillions of dollars and then infect American politics with hundreds of billions of dollars to implement their vision of being the sole judge, jury and executioner of future progress.

🤔

Imagine if you priced by the token…hey! Wait a minute!!

Very impressive.

Some are saying prices are going to continue to go way down…

The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026. Stakes are enormous on the outcome. Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question. Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material token efficiency. Model forward valuations changes independent of current revenue run rate. Path3: Open Models pressure proactive price cuts and performance improvements on token efficiency from the frontier labs. This resets the Pareto frontier. If I had to guess, valuations were most skewed and top ticked in Feb. Valuations can still rise from here but it will be less…

This is accurate. That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory. Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below.

Turns out you can’t build a monopoly on intelligence. Which we would have known simply by looking at humanity. Congrats to @OpenAI and what they just previewed… @OpenAI Congrats to @deepseek_ai and their latest benchmarks @OpenAI @deepseek_ai Congrats to @grok and their performance on the Pareto frontier

Guess this commodity. Why do I say it’s a commodity? Because the chart shows many providers accomplishing very similar things all at the same time. https://t.co/r0c1bTylIP

Why pay $1 when I can pay $105. Said no CFO, CEO or Board Director ever.

In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this.

Here is my AI investing guide. Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows: 1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers get more pushback, energized land can explode in value. Very bullish here. I’ve stepped into this layer very aggressively. My partner @anitavlallian and I have acquired almost 6GW coming online in a ramp from today thru 2029 of grid power and behind the meter. 2. Silicon - I helped get @GroqInc off the ground in 2015 and we licensed it to @nvidia for $20B Dec2025. I …

Pod!!!

A modern harness + open model will crush your token consumption but keep your performance.

In three days, on August 2, the EU's AI Office can start fining companies up to 3 percent of global revenue, or 15 million euros, for AI systems they cannot explain. The obligations can reach back to violations from August of last year. Most CEOs I talk to are reading that as a compliance problem to survive but I think it is really an upstream design question you either answered years ago or didn’t. If every action your software takes traces back to a requirement a person approved and a test that proves it still holds, the deadline becomes paperwork. One of Software Factory’s defining features is its ability to create the governance and a…

Probably nothing…

Deep Dive: What Happens When Cars Drive Themselves

The average American worker spends ~225 hours per year, nearly six full working weeks, commuting. These drivers are physically occupied and cognitively constrained. Autonomous driving can give back these hours, but also protects something even more important. In 2025, there were over 36K traffic fatalities on US roads. Waymo’s peer-reviewed safety data across 170 million driverless miles shows 92% fewer serious crashes or fatal injuries than human drivers in the same conditions. The autonomous driving revolution is removing one of the largest causes of accidental death in America. 2025 was the inflection point: Autonomous ride-hailing is n…

I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold. Is this true? Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell? What does smart, public money think of valuation? Is the below comment common knowledge? Could it explain part of the reason why folks passed?

As of today, let’s assume 99% of all code written on the internet is still human written and 1% is agentic. That means 99% of code is sloppy and error ridden. Humans make errors that agents don’t. As agentic code replaces human code, both the error rates and security incidences will GO DOWN. There will be new forms of attack vectors by swarms of agents but I would not shut down the internet because of that because companies will have sophisticated swarms of agents to protect them. If everyone uses commercially available open or closed source models, a stalemate is the most likely terminal outcome. That said, the immediate priority is obv…

Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one. “The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?” “I don’t understand why anyone who believes that AI will eliminate most jobs and much of humanity’s relevance would rush to build that future. The notion that AI is so dangerous that the only safe path is an extreme concentration of power seems dangerous.” https://t.co/XCl0j6vStC

Wow. Super cool and very valuable.