Chamath Palihapitiya

☀️!!

We are seeing this…

Pod!!!

What is a model? At a bank, it is the math behind almost every decision: who gets a loan, how much capital to hold, which transactions look like fraud etc etc etc. In April, the Fed, OCC and FDIC sunsetted the guidance banks have used since 2011 to check that math. The new rules cover traditional models but explicitly carves out generative and agentic AI, because it is moving too fast to freeze into guidance. Essentially, each bank is now responsible for governing the fastest moving part of its own technology by itself...but will still have to explain it to examiners when asked. If that exam were tomorrow, most banks would find it difficul…

Incredible. Bessent is so good.

Every large IT transformation program starts with a seemingly defensible choice. You pick a firm nobody can criticize you for picking, to help you transform. That made sense when the key question was whether anyone could build the thing at all. But AI changes this. The biggest study ever run on large IT programs, by McKinsey and Oxford, across more than 5,400 projects above $15M found they come in 45% over budget and deliver 56% less value than planned. The time overruns are just as bad as the cost overruns and can add years to meet objectives. What solves this is a system that, in part, can help you document your intention with clarity u…

As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS. Stock is up 41% since… Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn. Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase of value to enterprises. People like @Benioff are too good. They will do good deals on their behalf as this evolves.

What is one chart that represents non trivial danger to the status quo? This graph is top of mind for me. People will undoubtedly underestimate the compounding of quantum bits from here. The downstream impact to quantum insecure cryptographic methods, however, cannot be understated.

We know from the desktop and Internet eras that the economics started similarly and then flipped - the greatest margins were ultimately from those closest to the end user. The question is not if this will happen again in AI but when. https://t.co/O8wFcJ6Dj1

This is AWESOME!! More of this…now we need @tiktok_us @YouTube

Interesting development. The latest models are also the most expensive. One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest. On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous classes of models can do the job well, then the next obvious step will be to evaluate open source models which are equivalent but may be much cheaper. 🤔

we are here...

"One thing worth saying before..." stop already. just do your job.

@Jason This is a dumb new form of virtue signaling. Do you disclose every article you’ve ever read that gives you an opinion when you spout off on X? No. This is how AI also works. He might as well disclaim the entire internet and every written word. If he puts his name behind it, it’s his opinion.

If Stan Druckenmiller isn’t embarrassed to be a meat proxy, you shouldn’t be either. It’s like after matches was invented, still celebrating the arduous time to rub two sticks together. Dumb.

AI capex is projected to reach $765B in 2026, passing oil and gas for the first time. Compute is now getting its first futures contract. Here is what has to be true for it to work… https://t.co/STpPLN8wol

If you are interested in AI silicon read this. It’s 💯

Some are saying…

Nice!

It’s not in there yet. All that has happened thus far is the breathless burning of tokens and prematurely declared winners and losers. The graph below explains better than any other that we are still in the first inning and the final shape of AI is still very much TBD.

We’ve been taught about the deregulation wave of the 80s and 90s but there really wasn’t a simplification of the rules back then. The rules just kept increasing unabated. Rules serve only one customer - the incumbent who writes them - directly or through their proxy. Less rules create more competition. More competition always disrupts incumbents. Fewer incumbents drives more dynamic and quicker cycles of wealth and income redistribution. But as long as the rules keep getting more and more complicated, incumbents will benefit despite any real effort or skill. That seems dumb.

Some are saying…

Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!! via Politico: “ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it helped create. Anthropic-backed Public First Action has launched a new $2.5 million broadcast buy boosting GOP Sen. Ashley Moody across Florida, its first big general-election push, Will reports. The new ad, funded by an AI company, opens with an ominous warning: “Artificial intelligence is transforming our lives. And it’s moving faster than anyone can control. Coming f…

Pod!!!

Wow

Bissell is a 150 year old American family owned business based in Grand Rapids, Michigan. It’s a multi billion dollar manufacturing business who has revenue streams around the world and has to compete against tough competition from China everywhere so productivity, speed, and eliminating waste are critical to their competitiveness. 8090 worked with Bissell to identify a roadmap of potential projects to improve productivity and revenues or reduce costs. Our first program with them has added a lot of learning to our playbook in manufacturing while delivering measurable time and cost savings for them. Hear more from Bissell’s CFO, @matthew_k…

Yay

Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio. This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes. How did it get this bad? The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics: 1. Paint a positive picture of what is possible with AI. Instead of spilling the ink on the glass half full, stories abound of pearl clutching, catastrophizing or arcane technical jargon that, together, breed mistrust, fear and skepticism. 2. Visibly and disproportionately enrich the local communities AI data centers operate in. Tell these stories with a megaphone and have local leaders lead …

Yet, high value tasks don’t seem to be increasing…so where are all these tokens going??

Old news: The media lies. New news: Polls now lie too.