Chamath Palihapitiya

Spot on. California is doomed unless our political leaders step up quickly.

As we predicted in our annual predictions episode to start the year. Unless someone shows up with super conductivity or carbon nanotubes, copper is the only game in town and AI is a huge demand driver for a very under-resourced material. https://t.co/Gf6EAuE1hO

These motherfuckers really do seem to see and solve every problem differently than everyone else. Really inspiring. Congrats Tesla.

Deep Dive: Is AI Disrupting the Future of Work?

The U.S. economy is $31 trillion. Labor costs account for ~60% of that value. Experts agree AI will transform the $18.6 trillion labor market... but they disagree on how. This deep dive presents a first principled framework to explore how AI is actually impacting the job market. The disagreement in how AI will affect the future of work exists because people are looking at and arguing from different layers of the same labor market. Some focus on what AI can technically do. Others focus on how quickly companies deploy it. Others look downstream at what happens to workers once firms make those decisions. Each perspective has its own merits, …

This is really exciting and I’m personally very happy for my friends Andrew Feldman and G42/MGX. I have said this earlier on @theallinpod but we are about to see a renaissance in decode silicon. This is a necessary step as we make AI the default stack for applications over the next decade+. Along those lines, I think the early PC maker wars in the 80s/90s can be a useful analogy in understanding where the puck is going…

To be sure, this has been an under reported story. The facts, disclosures and especially the paper trail on this one is pretty nuts.

This may be a good moment to let people know that the reason this tax is being proposed in California in the first place is to pay for healthcare costs for illegal aliens. As of the latest California budget, the Governor of California has tightened eligibility. A healthcare union thinks it should be otherwise. The blast radius, however, of healthcare for illegal aliens, will be the end of Silicon Valley and the billions it generates for the state if this tax passes.

Don’t say we didn’t warn you. It’s only an absolutely horrible idea that makes Peter Thiel, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Reid Hoffman, David Sacks and Gavin Newsom all agree. This proposed “Billionaire Tax” will blow a massive hole in the California deficit and ruin the tech economy in California. The middle class will then be forced to pay for it if this passes because all the rich people are leaving! It’s mathematical at this point. Newsom needs to find a way to balance the budget and shelve this wealth tax from ever making it to the ballot.

You all use Uber, DoorDash and every other tech innovation made here but now you want the creators of these services to go bankrupt doing it?? That math doesn’t math. Everyone that is potentially touched by this will now leave and all that will result is a massive hole in California’s finances that you will be forced to fill. “Come Election Day, if this proposition lands on the ballot and succeeds as written, founders throughout the industry who haven’t already left California will not only be forced to sell control of their companies, many could go bankrupt. (Yes, literally).”

As we spent more money on education in California, did our kids become better educated? 2003 Spend: $14,400 per pupil 2024 Spend: $24,000 per pupil Unfortunately, the answer is “NO”. Inflation adjusted per-pupil education spending in California increased 66.67% over the past 20 years. The correlation (r), though, across all grades, between spending and actual results is 0.122 which is described as a “very weak positive” relationship. In other words, spending the extra money didn’t result in any increase in educational outcomes and in some cases was correlated with worse outcomes (Grade 8 Math).

Has your lived experience in California gotten 3x better in the past 20 years? Because your taxes and borrowing have gone up to triple spending in that same time. California Population: 2004: 35.6M 2024: 39.4M California Spending: 2004: $155B ($4,350/person) 2025: $510B ($12,940/person)

If, per the IRS sampling, 20% of these NGOs have compliance (aka audit) issues, this would mean up to $120B of spending in California could be subject to waste, fraud and abuse. This is 25% of the California budget for FY25-26. Per Grok: - The post draws from ProPublica's Nonprofit Explorer, which aggregates IRS data on 213,720 tax-exempt organizations in California generating $593.4 billion in total revenue, with similar figures for New York ($445.8B), Minnesota ($124.2B), New Jersey ($113B), and Washington ($139.5B). - These revenues, primarily from donations, grants, and fees, support sectors like health (40% of U.S. nonprofits) and ed…

In other words, life’s too short to drink bad wine…or, no wine.

“Over the last decade, California’s spending overall has doubled, while its population has stayed FLAT. The state’s education budget has doubled, while the number of students has DECLINED.”

Billionaires are the Trojan horse to create an asset tax on everyone.

Unfortunate update as of today: More calls from friends. The total wealth that has left California is now $1T. We had $2T of billionaire wealth just a few weeks ago. Now, 50% of that wealth has left - taking their income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, real estate tax revenue and all their staffs (and their salaries and income taxes) with them. In other words, by starting this ill conceived attempt at an asset tax, the California budget deficit will explode. And we still don’t know if the tax will even make the ballot. California billionaires were reliable tax payers - 13.3% every year. They were the sheep you could shear forever. Now Cal…

Santa Monica is under dire financial distress as it confronts settling a massive sexual abuse scandal of children by a city employee on top of the rampant waste, fraud and abuse that is already stretching the city towards insolvency. “The City has been under increasing pressure from taxpayers to halt the settlements that so far have paid a total of $229,825,000 to 229 plaintiffs, with the amounts varying per case. To pay the settlements, the City has been rapidly depleting cash reserves that have dwindled to $150 million, from as much as $400 million; used Housing Trust Funds that subsidize affordable housing and even considered selling Cit…

What I Read This Week… 1) xAI Raises $20B and Invests $20B On January 6th, xAI announced that their upsized Series E round finalized from the $15B target to $20B. Approximately 600 million MAU are now reached across X and the Grok apps. Grok 5 is currently under training and a new investment of $20B to scale a data center in Southaven Mississippi was announced on January 8th. “MACROHARDRR” is now xAI’s third data center and within proximity to their recently acquired powerplant which will increase xAI’s compute power to nearly 2 gigawatts. Mississippi’s Development Authority has approved xAI for its Data Center Incentive, providing sales…

Holy shit

2026 Prediction Pod!!

Bravo!!

The California Governor or State AG needs to sue to get this "Billionaire Tax" potential ballot initiative immediately scuttled. They proposed a tax assuming 225 people with $2T of wealth would just sit around and allow an asset seizure. Turns out $700B already left in the last few weeks! Imagine what this $2T will turn into by November?? There is a provision in the California constitution that allows the state to sue to block ballot initiatives that could deeply impede their ability to govern. A ballot initiative to create 0% income tax would be such a measure because it would create meaningful harm to California's ability to govern. You…

California failure in leadership strikes again. Make no mistake, the middle class will now be asked to make up for their lost tax revenue. Complete unforced error even considering this ballot initiative. It needs to be removed. Had it been killed even a month ago, the state would be $700B of wealth richer...and paying 13.3% in income tax every year...

Lots of talk on X and some opportunistic edits about tariffs and India from our interview with Sec Lutnick. Here is the full 4min clip to set the record straight.

As we’ve warned before on @theallinpod, the California pension system is dangerously underfunded and will fail at some point in the next few years. These decisions will make the problem worse. The politicians need to fix this asap.

This was a banger with @howardlutnick

a counter proposal to the "billionaire tax", aka the asset seizure tax, which is gutting the state of hi income tax payers, would be to tax carried interest or tax the use of margin loans. both would solve the revenue goal without driving hi value californians out of the state.

This will never happen in California…oh wait.

I'm sure there's a good explanation...

First slow…then all at once. Citizen journalists and the feds are converging on California.