Chamath Palihapitiya

Am an investor in 3 of the top 7. Bought secondaries in 2 of the others. The other two: one I don’t know very well, one I think will have to reinvent themselves in a post-AI world. If returns are what you’re after (me), secondary markets are the most effective way I’ve found to correct investment mistakes of the past. I’ve sold dogs, I’ve bought winners I missed.

Highly recommend…

If tech leaders don’t organize and get America on their side, the situation on the ground - as seen in the three charts below - will get worse before it gets better. That, in turn, will tank the US economy since AI is responsible for much of our incremental GDP. Someone needs to step up.

If ASI has arrived, my first reaction is “long live SaaS”…said no one, ever.

This may be a dumb question but I’ll ask it here anyways: I can’t find a good way for my various AI chats to automatically sync its conversation history into a structured knowledge base. So that as I update various chats from time to time and refine context, my knowledge base automatically grows with this new info.

This was an incredible moment for me because of what it taught me. He showed me what looked like a chip schematic. Me: “what chip is this?” Elon: “this is not a chip. It’s the factory layout. It’s a machine that makes machines.” I’ve taken that with me ever since. Some outside photos I took. https://t.co/F4wXLrzODN

In the mid 2010s, I experimented with something I called Capital as a Service (CaaS). Companies sent us their data, we ran it over a bunch of rules and sent back an automated investment decision. We funded more than 50 companies. That portfolio returned more than 2x DPI and generated a mid-teens IRR. What didn’t work: the load and cost of setting up and managing all the blockers and legal entities necessary to invest around the world. Once this gets fixed, CaaS is the way to go.

It’s is quickly being revealed that California’s oversized budget and taxes aren’t because of brilliant bureaucratic programs and thoughtful spending but laziness, incompetence and corruption.

don't worry. we are moving up and to the left. the days of 3-5% equity yields don't make sense sense if AGI is real. it isn't the safe harbor you think it is...

Deep Dive: Why Housing Costs Keep Rising

For decades, the majority of middle-income Americans stored their wealth in their homes. In 1970, a median home cost 2.7x the median household income. By 2024, that figure reached 5.1x. Today, 62% of middle-class wealth sits in an asset that 7 in 10 American households can no longer afford. Home ownership in the U.S. is now the subject of executive orders, Senate votes, and protest movements. But most of the debate focuses on symptoms rather than the system that created them. To understand why affordability looks the way it does today, we need to understand how housing became a financial instrument in the first place. How Homes Became Wea…

Starting my new role as a junior analyst at Anthropic on Monday. Wish me luck!

Meanwhile, our schools cry “budget cuts”and are graduating legions of kids who can barely read and do simple math.

Any Californian who votes for more taxes is some combination of a) naive b) unsophisticated and c) complicit in the fraud.

Impeach Newsom

In today’s episode of “Clapping as a Strategy”, this is probably nothing for crypto. https://t.co/gixf6NJ50E

California is going bankrupt before our eyes.

goddamn...wow.

I mentioned this last year on @theallinpod and the crypto bros freaked out. Two things are true about crypto bros: they are extremely technical and extremely belief oriented. Sometimes, though, the latter clouds the former. This paper from Google, though, is quite reasonable and raises some important technical questions. If you believe in AI leading to AGI/ASI in the semi near future, the most obvious honeypot to point an AGI/ASI to is cracking a crypto project like Bitcoin. Essentially becomes free money. The crypto elders should start spending more effort organizing on a timescale that makes crypto quantum resistant / proof in these ne…

How can this be real? Is this a skit? If so, it’s superbly acted. If it’s real, we need to find this young lady and shake some common sense into her…

People bag on me to soothe themselves because they started with much more than me but are losers and accomplished nothing. I started with nothing. Definitely made some mistakes. Definitely had some bad deals (SPACs!) but I always stayed in the game and kept grinding. Most everyone else just complains. The rest quit never to be heard from again. Meanwhile, if you were an LP in my funds the money printer has definitely gone brrrrr in your favor for quite some time. DPI!!!! Another few hundred million sent out today. Thanks for your friendship and support Farhan!! ❤️‍🔥🥰🤑🥳

The reason she says “could pay for” instead of “will pay for” is crucially important to understand. The programs Sen Warren talks about are important and helpful. But in no way can Sen Warren guarantee that the money the government collects can be sent directly to these programs let alone that those programs will spend it wisely and won’t waste it. In other words, this can buy votes from the people grifting from the leaky bucket or idealists who want to tithe and think they are part of some greater good but it won’t actually solve any real problems. Until there is some form of closed-loop accountability and auditing of government programs,…

Here is a good and useful walkthrough of what Software Factory is and what it can do...feel free to watch if you are curious.

Most people are self destructive. They don’t see themselves as on this path. Nor are willing to put in the effort to give their kids this shot. So they’d just rather steal from those who made it. But these same people will drive California into bankruptcy by doing it. These kinds of taxes only work at the national level where moving states isn’t enough. Also, when California goes through the eventual bankruptcy that will be caused by the capital flight from this bill, I don’t see the rest of the union stepping in.

Social media vs AI…

So true

Product idea: An app that takes today’s top headlines, run @karpathy’s iterative argument/counter argument loop, summarize both sides and send it to me so I can read both sides and come to my ow conclusion. TBC, this is likely a good feature flag for a chat or a skill vs an entire product but my point still stands.

The biggest threat to today’s social media apps is an incredible video model + TTS + autoresearch

The biggest threat to Instagram’s moat is an incredible image model.

The opposition research has started on you because you may win and Ro is starting to get worried. Keep it up.

pod!