Chamath Palihapitiya

modernization, auditability, control, evidence...

He’s right.

What is happening to the Blue Wave? Will it turn out, instead, to be a Blue Spritz? What if it’s not Blue at all? Maybe Independents and many Democrats are recoiling in realtime at the socialism, doomerism and radicalism agenda. Next few weeks will be really telling.

The case for giving everyone GLPs…

#3 in the country https://t.co/TxQGLYbMgg

The West is fighting three issues: 1. Socialism 2. Doomerism 3. Radicalism More often than not, people are infected with all three at the same time. The future of the West will be defined by how successful these ideologies are in influencing young people.

I stopped managing external capital about a decade ago so I could focus on compounding internal capital. But the nature of Venture Capital is that VC funds take many years to be fully realized. I’m at the tail end of that journey so am sharing the latest summary from Q2. I will hopefully wind down these funds in the next year or so and close this chapter. My learnings for GPs and LPs: 1. Reporting should be simple and obvious. 2. Net DPI is all that matters. Optimizing for returns creates discipline and discipline will save you in the bad times. 3. You must compare yourself to the Cambridge Index. It’s fuel if you want to be a 🐐.

Current State of the Union of AI/SI: Most everyone is selling CPM. Cost per thousand tokens + markup. Future State of the Union of AI/SI: Everyone will sell CPA. Accomplish the task, participate in the ROI. In the transition from CPM to CPA, we will debunk much of the current gamesmanship around revenues, gross margins and run-rates. This will necessarily involve a lot of value destruction. See Web1 and Mobile transitions for examples. Good luck to all the players!

True

Super Intelligence Pod!!!!

The future is taste and judgement.

To CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and Directors: Have you read the White House Accord on Super Intelligence? What will you do to safely deploy Super Intelligence within your Enterprise? EY and 8090 are building a new solution - KYSI (Know Your Super Intelligence) designed to create a verifiable record of AI-enabled decisions by capturing the context and evidence, and spotlighting controls, across enterprise environments. The solution helps organizations strengthen governance while keeping pace with innovation. It does this by providing: - End-to-end traceability - Policy-to-risk mapping - Auditable evidence packages Together, we are helping organizatio…

Accurate and concur.

Go Stan!!!!

Nvidia: Frontier technologies can both create wonder and be thoughtfully managed. A good lesson here for all of us.

Good reminder…everyone wants to commoditize their complement

🙌🏽🙌🏽

My take on AI. YMMV. https://t.co/ztLUSSW62x

Ant will be a blockbuster IPO on every dimension. But the events of the past few weeks will weigh on the price. My bet is that the margin of safety for the IPO buyer is at +/- $1T. At 1T, it gives a good shot at a big return for the IPO buyer. Most every IPO seller is still booking a huge win. Ant gets $200B and can go build the company of their dreams.

Pod!!!!

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Why AI is booming, but productivity isn't

In June, I wrote that vibe coding was dead and that ROI-driven analysis of AI was about to go from a nice-to-have to a necessity. Here's what AI ROI is and why it's tricky to see in GDP numbers so far: At its simplest, we need to understand two metrics: cost and value. On the cost side, Ramp's AI Index tracks what more than 70,000 US businesses spend on AI. The median company spends $12.50 per employee a month. Against an average employee cost of about $8,500 a month, AI only has to make that person ~0.15% more productive to pay for itself. That's about three additional productive minutes a week. So, for most companies, the token bill is …

Hahahahhahahahahha so good.

100% Watch this

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Zuck is right - this makes a lot of sense. Manage to your internal controls before releasing anything. Not FOMO’ing your way to release something incomplete or dangerous is applicable in every market, including AI.

This is worth reading.

basically this…

This wrinkle is indicative of a bigger problem: the behavior of agents are still quite naive and help amplify a bunch of issues wrt the direction of AI - most importantly including those of strategy and long term competitiveness. I suspect everyone will start blocking everyone shortly. Plan accordingly.

👀 I don’t know ZAI’s P&L so won’t comment on it but will state the obvious: Unless you vertically integrate and show a credible path to owning models, app, tokens, cloud, data centers and silicon the risk of being a hi volume, low profit company is abnormally high in this sector because value is accruing and changing so rapidly.