Chamath Palihapitiya

Right now, because electricity prices keep going up, consumers have pinned this blame on AI Datacenters. This is unfair but there is no organized or concerted effort being put in to turn this tide. As the perception of AI and Datacenters grow increasingly negative, homeowners are protesting data center approvals at an alarming rate. It then flows through to cancelled projects. Currently, for every 100 projects that are protested, 40% get cancelled. As of March 2026, this will mean more than 40 projects this year alone which will be almost 9 GW. My prediction is that these cancellations will grow which will mean that the derisked capacity o…

President Trump asked the Hyperscalers to sign a Rate Payer Pledge a few months ago. It was a smart and good thing by all parties. That said, electricity prices will keep going up. Why? A Utility has a unique business model that incentivizes them to invest more, each year, to maintain existing capacity as well as build more capacity. Because their profit is capped as a percentage of what they invest each year. For illustrative purposes assume they have a 10% earnings cap on yearly CapEx. Their incentive is to now spend as much CapEx as possible each year. This way, they can apply their 10% to as large of a number as possible. This isn't …

This is increasingly becoming a very useful feature for Enterprises as they a) decide to swap models because of cost b) decide to swap models because of one's ToS c) decide to swap models because of security d) decide to swap models because of capability etc etc etc Being tied to one Foundational Model is quickly becoming a bottleneck that can and should be avoided if you value your independence and flexibility. Software Factory resolves this for complex projects within Enterprises. A very useful, under-repped feature as it turns out...

Nuclear will continue to go sideways while solar and wind continue to go parabolic. The reasons are a) technological and then b) NIMBY-ism and local regulation. The critical question, as this continues for a while, is when the marginal cost of solar and wind becomes effectively zero (next few years), and the ramp up time for a new MW then also becomes zero what the economics, energy density and time to market of nuclear will have to be to remain competitive. In other words, when will far-field nuclear (ie solar) eat near-field nuclear (ie SMRs and such).

💯 The hype cycle will soon fade, the trough of disillusionment will set in and a lot of these magical promises will be undone as will the companies that have made them. AI one-shotting is a good way to grow fast but it doesn’t magically make the negative gross margins that come with it a good business idea. The narrow path to victory for these folks is if you can grow super fast and do a well timed sale (Windsurf, Cursor).

we hired someone! seems awesome but let's see...

Apparently enterprise software companies need good websites. Ours sucks and conversion showed it. So we put a bunch of changes into an auto research loop and then shipped it. New site is live. If you click, it worked! https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0

My 2025 Annual Letter is now out: https://t.co/vjvpDz6exF Contents: - Returns - If AI kills terminal value, the future is worthless until it arrives - If the US and China own frontier AI, what happens to others? - The surest AI bottleneck is physical - Trust-busting Big Tech and winning the AI race may be incompatible goals - Doomerism as a fundraising pitch - Markets are repricing from P/E toward current free cash flow and much more...

The game theory in AI has shifted. Having a leading foundational model is important but increasingly it is the zoning approved, powered land that is the gating bottleneck. Add turnkey access to silicon and it’s checkmate. If you have that, you have immense negotiating leverage right now. As data centers get voted down, this leverage will only increase. Elon just proved it with Cursor. Now imagine the deals that OpenAI and Anthropic will have to do in the next few years? The Amazon-Anthropic deal was an appetizer. If you are a sharp on the other side who owns the right assets… 🤤

Insane…I initially fell for this hoax.

Last few weeks of updates have largely been focused on stability and reliability...had peak usage last few weeks. We are adding some exciting features over the next few months... Try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0

This is the future we are building at 8090. Our Software Factory is giving the companies that adopt it a new way to think about software. Build v buy was never as simple as it sounded. If you build you have complex maintenance issues. If you buy, you also generally double or triple your budget with services. The new way is to focus on the business logic and have Software Factory create something bespoke. Fits like a glove, highly tuned for you, low maintenance costs. Try it here: https://t.co/fkfTXgdfXK

Spoke at the AI club at Stanford last night. 1000 people tried to attend. Seating was capped at 250. It was pandemonium at the end! If you’re a resilient, gritty engineer, PM, designer or GTM person, please consider working with us: - We have no org chart - everyone reports to me. We do this to minimize politics, titles and force natural leaders to self organize. - We are severely under manned for the work we have (by design) so you are forced to engineer your way out. Build solutions not orgs. - We will book nine figures this year and are growing very quickly. Our customers span all major parts of the US Economy. Hiring@8090.ai

JCal?

🤔

Present.

Told you. At 8090, we’re actually helping organizations (large and small) implement their AI transformation methodically and in a disciplined way that a) doesn’t leak all their data into model training and b) doesn’t just blow their OpEx budget to the benefit of yet another tool provider.

Facts. The fastest growing part of 8090 is our practice of ripping out legacy systems for large enterprises and migrating them to pristine, new, well documented and easy to maintain alternatives. It also turns out to be less than 50% of the TCO or better as well.

Spending more while getting less is usually a good sign of corruption, fraud, waste and incompetence. Our education system in California is profoundly broken. https://t.co/fj6xX2iDi7

A critical feature of Software Factory is that we abstract the models so that you can use your preferred model for things like code assembly BUT you can also change as you need. As it turns out, that last point really matters. If AI is the new electricity then it shouldn’t be so easy to turn it off. And if it does get turned off, being able to switch to a new provider and minimize disruption is key.

I think CSPs, neoscalers and hyperscalers are a big class to be disrupted as the population realizes that a) AI is too powerful to be gatekept by a handful of model makers and b) that energy, permitting and construction isn’t actually a moat.

The antidote to slop and entropy is giving an agent symbolic context that is language, hardware and database independent. A lot of that valuable content is in Slack. This is great.

Pod!!!!

Deep Dive: The 60 Critical Minerals That Power the Modern World

On the 2026 All-In Predictions episode, I made a simple point: We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand and supply dynamics of a handful of critical minerals that we need. What Are Critical Minerals The U.S. defines critical minerals as materials that are essential to national security and economic stability, yet vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. To build the 2025 critical list, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) modeled more than 1,200 supply-disruption scenarios, ranking minerals by how severely a cutoff could hit the U.S. economy. This list grew from 35 minerals in 2018 to 50 in 2022 …

If AI lives up to the hype, it will erode the traditional long term moats of technology companies. As a result, no one with a brain wants to pay for cashflows far in the future. These multiples cannot come back unless AI turns out to be a toy.

Stop being cynical. Go out and make something.

As discussed on @theallinpod a few weeks ago…this risk is real and, imo, q-day gets pulled in closer in time with every major model breakthrough.

This is really accurate. As much as we all want to drink the vibe coding kool-aid, the reality is that 90%+ of all code in a company is maintaining and migrating existing stuff that is complicated and messy. You can definitely vibe code the remaining 10% but unless there is a working example of how to reinvent the 90%, AI will not live up to its potential. We started 8090 and built Software Factory to focus on the 90%. Many large enterprises now rely on us to help them migrate complex systems, rewrite old systems and maintain existing decisions. Cheaper, faster and better. Please consider trying it and seeing what it can do. Try it here…

The Undemocratic Party

Heading back to Stanford next Monday to talk with the AI Club about building real companies in this new era. If you're a strong software engineer who wants to ship high-quality enterprise software at a completely different pace, we’re hiring at @8090Solutions right now. Please, come and say hi after the talk!