Peter Schiff

When it comes to industrial commodities, oil may get all the headlines, but check out copper. Today it's trading at a new record high, above $6.83 per pound, up nearly 60% since Trump took office. This does not jibe with the Fed's view that inflation is headed back down to 2%.

President Trump and members of his administration routinely tell obvious lies when they speak about the U.S. economy. As a result of their lost credibility, you can't believe anything they say when they speak about Iran or other issues, even though those lies may not be obvious.

Happy Labor Day. If you work for a small business, as you enjoy a paid day off, consider that no one labors harder than your boss. Without the entrepreneur taking risks, your job wouldn't exist. Employees get paid no matter what. Employers only get paid if their risks pay off.

Bond Yields Just Hit a 2007 High... Every Buyer Became a Seller https://t.co/61JCX4I0Zc

Bond Yields Just Hit a 2007 High... Every Buyer Became a Seller New Episode. https://t.co/CWCtQR2AmI

Republicans were rightly concerned about the diminished mental acuity of former President Biden. Based on his Truth Social posts, Trump isn't playing with a full deck either. Economic ignorance isn't enough to explain the absurdity of the president's posts. Silence is hypocrisy.

If Trump carried out his threat to ban trade with nations that have trade surpluses with us, soon he'd have to shut off global trade completely, as nations with trade deficits would flip to surpluses, as we buy more from them and they buy less from us and more from other nations.

Trump threatened that if the Fed doesn't lower interest rates, he'll cut off all trade with countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. He claims that's better than tariffs. This would crash the U.S. economy, as a shortage of goods would send prices and unemployment soaring.

Trump claims the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world, like “the old days.” But in the old days the U.S. was a creditor nation, had balanced budgets, a smaller federal government, trade surpluses, a low national debt, high savings, and was on the gold standard.

Kevin Hassett keeps saying the U.S. economy is booming. By what metrics are we experiencing an economic boom? On many of the most important measures the economy is weaker now than it was at the end of Biden's term, when Trump claimed the U.S. had the worst economy in its history.

70% of the jobs supposedly created in August were in food and beverage service, education, and healthcare, with better than one third of total jobs for the month going to waiters and bartenders. I wonder what percent have college degrees and how much they owe in student loans.

Financial markets are reacting to the August jobs report, which showed 162,000 jobs added, more than triple the estimate. But what are the odds that this is the actual number? Based on recent trends, it’s highly likely that this big beat will eventually be revised down to a miss!

I wonder how many more times Warsh can talk about hiking interest rates to fight inflation, without ever actually hiking them, before investors stop reacting to his words. Once words no longer affect markets, Warsh will face far more substantial market pressure to act. Got gold?

Open a Tgold account today. We're getting closer to launching our debit and credit cards linked to your metals account. Customers will be able to spend their gold in real time, or spend by borrowing at low interest rates against their gold without selling. https://t.co/9w4qtZtdiU

Despite paying tariffs, Americans are losing big on trade under Trump. The July U.S. trade deficit soared over 24% to $88.4 billion. That's the largest monthly deficit since the tariff front-running month of March 2025. The deficit in July 2024 under Biden was just $78.8 billion.

Fed Governor Waller said if there's "continued progress toward our 2 per cent goal," he'd support keeping interest rates on hold. But inflation has made no progress in returning to 2% in years. Warsh said inflation has been too high, and Waller seems OK with letting it stay high.

Fed Governor Waller said he's inclined to keep rates on hold, but if inflation comes in hot, he'd "consider" a rate hike. Considering a hike is not the same as committing to an actual rate hike. Plus, a quarter-point hike will do nothing to cool inflation. Gold is up over $100.

Many are dismissing the rise in Treasury yields as not reflecting a problem with the U.S., as rising yields are a global phenomenon. But this overlooks the fact that the U.S. is not the only country to have issued too much debt and which will resort to inflation to repudiate it.

If strong economic growth is the reason Treasury yields are rising, why is the yield on Swiss Government 10-year bonds still under 45 basis points, about the same level as four years ago? If it’s just about governments competing for capital, Swiss yields should be rising too.

It's ridiculous to claim that Treasury yields aren't rising due to increased inflation expectations, a loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal policy, declining Fed credibility and questions over its independence, or de-dollarization, as those are the most obvious reasons for the rise.

The average yield on 10-year Treasuries during the 1980s was 10.6%, and during the 1990s it was 6.7%. Yields should be higher now as we are a much worse credit risk given the size of our debt and the rate at which it's increasing. So the current 4.8% yield won't stay this low.

If a 4.8% yield on a 10-year Treasury seems high, during the 1970s the average yield was 7.5%. During that decade the national debt averaged about $500 billion, 1/80th of its present size. Yes, inflation as measured by the now rigged CPI was higher then, but that'll soon change.

Gold sold off on the belief the Fed will raise interest rates to fight inflation. In the unlikely event the Fed actually follows through, it'll lose the fight. Though nominal rates may rise, real rates will fall as inflation soars. That's bullish for gold. https://t.co/CY02g7N0Nj

Even if the Fed hikes rates, markets will immediate price in the next one. Since rate hikes will be big enough to weaken the economy, raise unemployment, and grow federal deficits, but too small to stop inflation from rising, the Fed may conclude rate hikes aren't worth the risk.

Secretary @howardlutnick wants tariffs to force semiconductor companies to manufacture in the U.S. so American customers won't have to pay tariffs. Even if that happens, American customers will still pay more for semiconductors than had they been able to buy imports tariff-free.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 4.8%. The 30-year yield is near 5.3%. While these yields may seem high relative to what we've experienced in the recent years, given historic averages and the much larger size of our debt, they're actually still low and have a long way to rise.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.81%, oil is near $92, and the labor market is weakening. The Fed is in a box of its own design. Do nothing and inflation and unemployment both rise. Do something and it's the same result, only faster. Do what's needed and it's a financial crisis.

The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds hit 3% today, for the first time in 30 years. I forecast this on my podcast when the BOJ drew a line in the sand at 50 basis points. This is a huge problem for Japan, but a harbinger of an even bigger problem for the U.S. Got Gold?

Oil is breaking out, now trading above $90. It won't be long before it's over $100. Not only will this push up the CPI and bond yields, but it will make driving to the polls in November much more costly for voters. The politics get even worse if the Fed hikes rates in September.

When Kudlow said that Trump sometimes embellishes things a wee bit, which was a polite way of admitting he often tells huge lies, Bessent immediately replied, “Your words, not mine, your words, Larry.” Bessent is not just the Treasury Secretary, he's the Secretary of Ass Kissing.