Peter Schiff

Q2 GDP growth of 1.5% was weaker than expected. Worse, the GDP deflator surged 6.3%, the highest since Q2 2022. Consumer spending rose 3.2% as Americans borrowed to pay higher prices, especially for imports. This isn’t prosperity. It’s debt-fueled consumption masking stagflation.

The Fed Just Chose Inflation... And the Bond Market Called Its Bluff New Episode. https://t.co/zoBvEnEztP

Powell bragged about the Fed winning the inflation war without causing a recession. The reason the Fed didn’t cause a recession is that it surrendered as soon as banks started to fail. That’s why inflation never went away. Price increases merely tapered off before the next surge.

Bond yields rose sharply as investors lost confidence in Warsh’s actual commitment to 2% inflation. This was confirmed by gold’s resilience, as it didn’t sell off with bonds. Gold held $4K support nicely and rose on the day, reasserting its safe-haven and inflation-hedge status.

The 30-year Treasury yield is above 5.2% for the first time in twenty years. Warsh is afraid to raise rates due to the adverse consequences for markets & the economy. But his failure to raise rates will have similar consequences. We’re damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

It should be obvious by now that all Warsh is willing to do to lower inflation to 2% is talk about how committed he is to achieving that goal. But he does not want to actually do anything to lower inflation, as he is afraid of adverse consequences for the markets and the economy.

Warsh kept saying that, when it comes to inflation, he doesn't have a magic wand to reduce it to 2%. No one thinks he does. But the Fed does have two tools: interest rates and its balance sheet. So far, Warsh has refused to wave either one and offered no explanation as to why.

The current federal funds rate had been in place for more than five months before Warsh became chair. Since then, he’s had two opportunities to raise it but has failed to do so. That shows that, when it comes to policy, Warsh is no more committed to 2% inflation than Powell was.

For all of Warsh’s tough talk about the Fed’s newfound commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target it failed to hit under Powell, so far the Fed has done nothing differently with respect to interest rates or its balance sheet. It's business as usual.

The bond market is giving a thumbs-down to the Fed’s decision to choose inflation. The Fed may have held short-term interest rates steady, but the market is raising long-term rates as investors choose to sell Treasuries and buy gold.

As I’ve been saying, Warsh can talk the talk on fighting inflation, but he can’t walk the walk. The Fed left rates unchanged and committed to maintaining ample reserves. Warsh is correct: inflation is a choice, and just like his predecessors, Warsh has chosen inflation! Got gold?

If the Fed surprises with a rate hike today, and gold rallies anyway, this will be a sign that investors are starting to appreciate the gravity of the situation. Any real attempt to rein in inflation will crush markets and the economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course. Endgame!

Inflation is too high and headed higher. Even if the Fed hikes the federal funds rate by 25 or 50 basis points today, it’s too little, too late to make a difference, as rates will still be accommodative. The Fed also must shrink the money supply and contract its balance sheet.

.@CNBC reported that hotel operators are feeling the pressure of inflation from rising rents, utilities and insurance. But the actual inflationary pressure comes from the Fed, which chooses to monetize federal government budget deficits and keep interest rates artificially low.

Gold is down again today along with tech stocks, trading just above the $4k support level. But the weakness in both the stock market and U.S. economy, and the prospects for higher inflation and nominal interest rates, are extremely bullish for gold. Buy the metal and the miners.

Despite the tech market carnage, the broader stock market is still holding up well, with the Dow Jones up over 400 today. I expect that to change as the correction spreads. The entire U.S. stock market is overpriced, not just tech. I also expect a much bigger selloff in Bitcoin.

The AI trade continues to unwind. $SPCX is now down over 20% since its IPO. More significantly, it’s down over 52% from its high. It looks like the SpaceX IPO marked the peak of the AI bubble. AI is real, but there's a lot more air left to come out of overhyped AI-related stocks.

Oil is down close to 7% as war rhetoric over Iran is once again toned down. Yet bond yields have barely come down. This indicates underlying weakness in the bond market and suggests that the next oil rally will send yields soaring to new highs. A sovereign debt crisis is coming.

Why is $MSTR up 7% this morning? @saylor's latest move reduced the YTD Bitcoin yield to 4.5%. That yield stood at 13.3% on May 25. That’s a 66% reduction in two months! At this rate the 2026 Bitcoin yield will be negative. If you’re bullish, you’re better off just owning Bitcoin.

$SPCX is coming back down to earth. Shares just traded as low as $110.05. That’s 18.5% below the IPO price and 51% below the high. This is an example of why it’s so dangerous to rush into buying a heavily hyped IPO during its first few days of trading.

After years of publicity surrounding Operation Atlantis, the J5’s own 2024 impact report identifies no EPB-related charges, convictions, tax recoveries, seizures, or proven money laundering. Its efforts to get OCIF to shut down my bank achieved nothing toward its stated mission. In fact, the report does not even mention Operation Atlantis by name. Instead, it states that Euro Pacific Bank “was at the centre of a global Day of Action by the J5 in 2020, as part of an investigation into suspected tax evasion and money laundering.” But it never claims that those suspicions were ever substantiated. Instead, it notes that “the Puerto Rico Office o…

Japan Is About to Pop the Biggest Bubble in History... And It Takes Us With It https://t.co/0hIgLHDYZY

Japan Is About to Pop the Biggest Bubble in History... And It Takes Us With It New episode. https://t.co/BhFJUieKaE https://t.co/BhFJUieKaE

If you think you had a bad week, @elonmusk lost nearly $100 billion. I'm old enough to remember when $100 billion was a lot of money.

Just like everything related to Bitcoin, the title of this video is very misleading. https://t.co/R4wvjuxxBp

In his latest attempt to illegally impose tariffs on American consumers that were not authorized by Congress, Trump is applying tariffs meant to target goods produced using forced labor to imports that have nothing to do with unpaid or coerced labor.

Once again, traders are getting spooked by the rise in bond yields. But the breakdown in bonds is actually bullish for gold, as it reflects soaring federal budget deficits, out-of-control inflation, and a loss of confidence in the creditworthiness of the U.S. Buy the dip!

The yield on the 30-year Treasury is 5.18%, its highest since April 2006. At that time, the U.S. national debt was $8.35 trillion. Now it’s $39.6 trillion, almost five times as large. The U.S. can’t afford these rates, let alone the much higher rates we'll soon be forced to pay.

Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline. But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel. If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy!

$SPCX closed just above $115, nearly 20% below its IPO price and almost 50% below its high. This could be a harbinger of things to come for other overhyped stocks and cryptos. Look out below!