Bill Gurley

This is 💯 right. You might as well put a high-fence around the United States. We wouldn’t be locking other people out — we would be caging ourselves in. & using AI with price/performance that isn’t globally competitive. No need to protect the fastest growing company of all time.

If you are on the verge of AGI or ASI, why isn’t your model smart enough to recognize espionage distillation in real time? You say “cure cancer in a few years.” Isn’t sniffing illicit distillation quite a bit easier than curing cancer? Why write letters to DC? Just use AGI.

This is a critical point worth reflecting on. Anthropic could have sued in court (as others have). But they want something far more valuable than simple restitution. They want the US government’s “protection against competition” for years and years. A court can’t provide that.

Yes. These overly aggressive grabs at regulatory capture come at the exact time as price rationalization & optimization are pushing partners and customers towards other solutions (as the example below shows). Hope the govt knows they are being manipulated.

Oh my. What a thoughtful and heartfelt human that really adored covering the industry. Every chance I had to speak with him left me with warmth and a smile. Wish I had another chance to talk to him.

In the mid 90's, I was covering PCs on Wall Street. Then, there were like 5 soaring public PC makers. But slowly Intel proved who was boss, even entering the motherboard business. This "Intel" equivalency rang true reading this piece on $CATL in China. https://t.co/x1gqdxM5L0

@Ferbin08 @p3institute You do want to encourage experimentation.

@Ferbin08 @p3institute Many tried “first”. Some worked. Some didn’t.

Spending more time on policy ideas w/ @p3institute. One idea that excites me is fueling state vs state (& city/city) competition. Leveraging our federal system, we can run many experiments, learning from the ones that work. Homelessness is one such case. Read more below... https://t.co/amUE6Gchl5 Some U.S. Cities Solved Homelessness. The Rest Should Just Copy Them. https://t.co/OepNCZtt1Z https://t.co/IIEPUin5g0

The NBA players union should demand seats like these soccer players get. https://t.co/mG2uRBQkHx

Thanks to @sapinker and Professor Newport for calling out the insidious behavior of AI company leaders that cry “doomersism” while blasting ahead and pocketing billions in secondaries along the way. It’s not “upstanding,” it’s the very opposite.

When I came back to Austin after almost 30 years, one of the first people to reach out and welcome me back was Josh. No one tilted harder as an enthusiastic supporter of Austin entrepreneurism. Will be greatly missed.

Who out there has any data on the Amazon, JP Morgan, Berkshire effort that was eventually closed? I would love to learn what they learned. Email healthcare (at) https://t.co/g16RAYZoo9. Thx.

When people talk about AI chips in China, they focus only on Huawei. Just as the US has Cerebras, Google TPU, Amazon Tanium, & AMD, there is a far bigger ecosystem of players, including Cambricon with a US$40B market cap. Many public already. More here: https://t.co/IogI68b6DX

🤣🤣🤣

In my recent substack (link in next post) I spoke of sophisticated, and quite evolved "open" corporate strategies. Interestingly, Unitree's top competitor in China just open-sourced a massive training data set. Read here for how and why... https://t.co/b9dw1K6E1J Here is the analysis of the most sophisticated open-source strategies. Need to watch this one. https://t.co/P8rbKhHLK9

FYI, the kindle version of my book Runnin' Down a Dream is currently $2.99. I'm not sure how it got there, so I have no idea how long it will last! Good time to grab it for you or a recent grad. https://t.co/JW61S0GLXc

It was great to sit down with the one and only @shaneparrish. Shane brings unique questions that caused me to think deeper. Hope you enjoy it. Also - Ted Talk just dropped also. 2-1. :) https://t.co/AnllMRUjXW

If someone is telling you, you are subject to a lock-up agreement, and your firm signed nothing with the lead underwriter, they are either lying or misinformed. Lockups are a silly contract with underwriter (primarily to help engineer a secondary). Prove me wrong. I’ll correct. Also - it’s never been enforced. The underwriting bank would have to sue for breach of contract. I asked AI for “best example” of lock-up breach lawsuit. It couldn’t find one. Try it yourself. Find a counter point, PLEASE share.

Happy to share that my Ted Talk from Vencouver in April just went live. In the heat of job anxiety, I believe there is only one thing that makes a job “truly safe.” https://t.co/OcpYPXH9s6 @TEDTalks

In addition to enterprises pushing to better understand token costs, I think the consumer models (I use many) are "trying less hard" recently. Meaning, trying to do answer without web search. Angling to give up sooner. I have to believe this is a result of cost optimization. Maybe we are moving to the "optimization" phase of the AI game. Lots of things change in this phase. In the dot-com boom, all website were built on Oracle+Sun. Five years later all MySQL + Linux. Eventually the margins matter.

With talk of the US gov't investing in or owning stakes in large LLM companies, here is a timely look at the state of play with government funds in China. More detailed and complex that you might realize. What do you think of municipal funds? They have them...

100%.

@ZenobleResearch 😂😂😂

Let's talk IPOs. Esoteric IPO feature called the “greenshoe." If company’s IPO is underpriced; deal automatically expands by 15% (opposite of what company would want). If deal trades below IPO price, greenshoe shares used for "stabilization" (buying shares below IPO price). Here’s the question. In that case, there is a gap between the purchase price and the IPO price. If you multiply this delta by the # of greenshoe shares - that can represent a potentially big number. Let’s call it the “greenshoe bounty.” Who gets the bounty? Academic research suggests that (1) stabilization doesn't work, and (2) greenshoe creates biased incentives in both…

How an open source project in Austria sent an open-weight company in China (Kimi) revenues soaring. Global atoms bouncing into one another. I suspect the Anthropic block also was a major catalyst. https://t.co/wWFvuf0qsw

Chinese founders/investors read all they can about leading US founders. Good practice to do the same in reverse. Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek) is one to watch. Recent moves: https://t.co/JBugU9bmb7 Translation of earlier long-form interviews: https://t.co/a505Z8JzhW

RDAD Foundation 2026 Grant Applications Open https://t.co/5DVGieOmjJ https://t.co/XIiqEXzGnX

It this Feynman quote speaks to you, my book is the playbook to help make it happen... https://t.co/XS5kMaTNPc

Here's another article summary about Chinese AI companies monetizing outside of China with enterprises. Article covers AWS event in Shanghai. https://t.co/BpYyaWjYid