Bill Gurley

With $FIG we have another massive "POP" highlighting the gross inefficiency in the modern IPO process. It's very simple. They REFUSE to match supply/demand (that happened today). They brag about the mis-match - "30X oversubscribed." The outcome is expected & fully intentional. Who benefits? The large clients of the investment banks (who return the favor paying for other services). They bought it at $33 last night and can sell it today for over $90. Many will. I love this email from Goldman Sachs back in 1999 where they make it clear. This is all well known. Let's talk numbers. 42.5mm shares were sold for $33. That's roughly $2.6B "left …

The odd thing about this situation is I think OAI has a disincentive to work on ad-like monetization. As long as users gator they seem to have ample equity backers. They can lose more money longer than the deep pocketed incumbent. Why clutter the UI w ads prematurely? 1/2 Meanwhile if $GOOG search revs decline investors view it as under threat. And if Goog puts ads in AI results the user experience at OAI is relatively better (without them). Sticky wicket as they say. Private investors tolerate more risk than public. Now in size. Grow not 🐊.

https://t.co/yCNnDpp4Fg

In this modern age of high-stakes VC, I hope no one launches a funding turd-bomb on your industry (as happened here). Really sucks. https://t.co/39cCCgfksp

...And just like that there is another one... Zhipu crushing benchmarks. $1.4B raised. Also open. @ZhipuAI @deepseek_ai , then @Kimi_Moonshot , now Zhipu. All co-evolving.

@mattwridley’s book The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (2010) persuasively argues that human progress and innovation are largely driven by the exchange and combination of ideas—much like genetic recombination in biology. He calls this phenomenon “ideas having sex.” If normal sharing or technological innovation is “ideas having sex” this plethora of simultaneous open AI models (with published weights and papers about technique) is an “idea orgy.” The collective innovation should easily soar pass anything one company can do alone. No idea if the Chinese govt is encouraging this amount of openness or it’s just caused by a competitiv…

Always listen to @btaylor if you get a chance.

😢

May you all dent the world as much as Ozzy did. RIP. https://t.co/qwUySnQPRS

I don’t think anyone in crypto land wants to do anything but use an algorithm to match supply and demand. As they should. It’s requires an act of intellectual gymnastics to justify the traditional IPO process. Good riddance.

All inclusive.

Lot of conjecture about windsurf deal. Anyone have all the details? Article with most of the facts?

Good stuff.

@WMartell32 And they knowing do above market trading back with the bank to “thank” them for the allocation.

It feels pretty shitty to get fleeced - especially when its the biggest transaction of your life. Knowingly agreeing to being 30x oversubscribed is financially ignorant (think about it). Just simply match supply & demand. They do a DL the very next day anyway. Skip the fleece. https://t.co/pURtJZrQiI https://t.co/B5uLw4Ii2e

Sounds like China based Moonshot has raised over a $1b. Are there any English profiles of this company? Do we now know of 5 deep pocketed open source AI model companies in China?

Returning to China this August—1st visit since pre COVID. My previous trips have been enlightening & I look forward to the same. Hope to deepen my understanding, engage with insightful minds, and witness what's new. Open to recommendations for the trip. Please reach out.

First step here would be Manhattan project type program to figure out why China & South Korea can land new fission at 1/4th the cost of the US. Thats a solvable problem but the current open market isn’t unlocking it. Likely requires regulatory changes & IP sharing (Navy?).

@modestproposal1 People will try to frame any “criticism” as “not believing in AI” but the world is more nuanced. Someone can always take it “too far.” And they will.

Thanks to @MichaelDell for joining @BG2Pod this episode!!!

If you are in the Bay Area next Thursday and appreciate music this is a “can’t miss” show. Special artist.

Impressive. Winner.

I think it’s fairly obvious using straight-line depreciation on GPU clusters is a mistake. I predict sometime in the next decade all the major hosting providers switch to accelerated, increasing historical losses to benefit future reported income.

Important to see the real truth. Irony is GM has been “protected” by govt.

I really wonder if this is a direct “backfire” of the early employee liquidity policy. Be careful when you financially engineer. FAFO.

The company that was already planning to lose $7b this year, is “reevaluating comp” to be more aggressive. Put that in perspective. 🤠🥳😎🙏 https://t.co/Np8yYshG6g https://t.co/L6MVywANJh

Smart move. PAGA is horrific grift for the lawyers of CA.

Very odd decision for OAI to openly promote this Chinese AI company "Zhipu AI" in a blog post. Probably think it will help get them shut down as competition. My experience has found that these efforts backfire - all you do is INCREASE interest in the competitor. From both funders & customers. You just put them on the map. Now CNBC has done a segment. Why does OAI care enough to write about it? There are hundreds of AI companies they didn't write about. The opposite of love is indifference. https://t.co/JU5lOjoq1W https://t.co/0mKcnAq22i

Watching @CNN to catch up on Israel / Iran situation. Wow this is an awful overload of pharma ads. I favor the ban. Banned in most countries.

I had a chance to work with @kevinweil early in his career. I also biked with him once (he’s a beast). Love his perspective on what’s possible with AI.