Jim Chanos

“Cost-Adjusted EBITDA”

Short interest in $ORCL is only 2.6% of the float, which is below the overall market’s level. And Ellison announced his sale plan after the market closed on Friday. Other than that…

When a neocloud tells you they are “signing deals” at $25-40M per MW, your next question should be, “From whom, and how big is that contract…?” Self-reported KPI’s like “contract signings” and “ARR” can be gamed…and often are. Particularly when you need to constantly raise $. (2) Furthermore, are those $25M per MW “signings” gross, or net? Many of the lessees get substantial credits for routine non-performance, and pay much lower effective rates over the entire term if they fronted the neocloud a 40-50% pre-payment. $CRWV $IREN $NBIS

So not only did Ellison announce a material 10b5-1 equity sale plan ATC today, but it appears that $ORCL forgot to mention in their 1Q press release and conference call an additional $700M to their ongoing restructuring charge plan. Simple oversight, I’m sure. https://t.co/q08reAwy40

Huh…?! In the LTM $NVDA’s “Investments” increased $83B on an increase in Retained Earnings of $131B. That ain’t 100-1, even using AI math. https://t.co/HwswuQk2xn

This is not the “bear case” on AI data centers…and he knows it. It’s that even when using 10 year depreciation on the GPU’s inside the data centers…the business is still uneconomic(returns below cost of capital). $IREN $CRWV $NBIS

Are we sure that’s not @Cubs fans leaving the state…?

@RepzdaCanes @michaeljburry $NVDA is one of my biggest long positions (it’s almost 8% of the S&P 500). Not sure that fits your narrative.

@Greg_Craig_US I am skeptical of the companies buying $NVDA GPU’s to rent them out, not the company selling them (who should be charging more).

@CapitalObserver Or guarantee their value on the backend.

Then why not rent them out yourself? Or simply keep raising prices? $NVDA

@Dean62158225 If that’s truly the case then shouldn’t we expect $NVDA to keep increasing the price of such a valuable asset…?! Or rent the GPU’s out themselves?

So a mere $500B to $1T in $SPCX capex….

@icecube2000000 And just what has VW received, and how has it directly benefited from this $RIVN financial support over the years? How has $RIVN’s software helped VW?

This is not good news for $RIVN. Reminder that their Software and Services segment (only source of profits) is almost entirely revenues from their JV with VW.

@LoganRoykah @garyblack00 Yawn. If you are an institutional investor being benchmarked, and you are not long $TSLA (or any mega-cap for that matter), you in effect are short it. Tesla currently represents 2% of the S&P 500.

“I see your GoPro, and raise you a Dyson AI toothbrush…”

@matthew_sigel Seems like capex/capital employed numbers are going up just as fast, if not faster(that’s why the stocks have been declining). And let’s see if these “$20-25 per MW signings” actually show up in actual revenues per MW.

@matthew_sigel $IREN 2028 Net Debt estimates - -> https://t.co/DQdnHosQC3

Of course it is… https://t.co/BHHkBTqwVM

@InvestNorthwise So let me get this straight…You are excluding deferred revenue from your capital calculation (which is incorrect) and are at 2x Street estimates for revenues, yet your pre-tax ROIC is still only 12.3%…in 2030?! How is that compelling? $NBIS

These deals are simply financial engineering to allow $NVDA a bigger share of the GPU leasing economics, using other companies as cut-outs. Not a good development for the neoclouds. $NVDA holds all the cards here.

So $IREN, with slightly over $6B of capital employed at 6/30/26 is going to spend $25-30B in FY 2027…?! Which means they will average almost $20B in capital employed in FY 2027. On a forecast of $4B in ARR. The math still doesn’t work here. https://t.co/WtlH4HHVjS

The Alternate Universe of Neocloud Deal Math $CRWV $IREN $NBIS

I’m beginning to think humanity needs an innumeracy vaccine, stat.

From the guy whose company routinely sells billions of dollars of shares. $MSTR

So we have $1T in cash on hand and $40T of debt, and are discussing…buybacks?!

@MelvinInvests (2) The $NBIS Faithful seem oblivious to how capital intensive their business model is. At the end of the 2Q they had an ARR of $3B, with capital employed of $16B. $CRWV had a similar ratio. https://t.co/Z0MZ48rb9B

Any day now…

So are OpenAI + Anthropic combined…profitable as of the 2Q?