Jeffrey Gundlach

Who is still funding Tim Walz?

Halfway through fiscal year 2025, the U.S. Budget deficit increased by $1.3 trillion. So we are up to a $2.6 trillion annual rate. That rounds up to an incredible 9% of GDP. The fit is hitting the shan.

The 30 year US Treasury yield is going vertical.

When public markets experience a sharp decline, like now, it is nonsensical to think private markets are a harbor in the storm. Yet I have heard this absurd assertion twice in the past week. “Don’t worry, we’re not down”. Sure.

The 2 year UST yield now sits at exactly 3.5%, suggesting the Fed Funds rate is at least for now viewed to be 75 basis points too high. Yet I do not see a single cut any time soon, unless the losses in risk assets greatly increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are now, with the present futures market openings, negative in price change year-over-year.

No, US bond market credit spreads are not “well contained.” Since year end, the extra interest Junk Bond companies need to pay to borrow vs the US Treasury have increased by 140 basis points. I predicted this in an interview with Scott Wapner the day after the last Fed meeting.

It is not an option, it is essential: Without reducing spending the United States will go bankrupt. Cut, baby, cut!

There are basically two camps now regarding US Government spending. One that benefits from the systemic multi trillion dollar deficit funded circular financing scheme and one that wants that slush fund to stop.

Fed Day tomorrow. Most predictable “no change” in recent years. The Fed’s “dual mandate” will be the focus of Powell’s presser. Should be more than ever since there is now a tension between those two mandates. Per usual, doing CNBC with Scott Wapner immediately following Powell, trying to make sense of it all in real time. Should air around 12:15 PST.

Sadly, but as expected, Newsom actually spoke of the rebuilding process as a way of “reimagining LA 2.0” Gavin, we have had more than enough of your “reimagining”.

Wide swathes of Pacific Palisades are burned to the ground. Malibu by PCH too. The “rebuild” process will shape the future of Los Angeles.

Gavin Newsom, the “Governor of California”, needs to resign today.

Karen Bass, the “Mayor of Los Angeles”, needs to resign effective the day before yesterday.

State and local governments are announcing their intention to nullify Federal law in the days ahead. What year is this, 1862 ?

The 21st Century is just about 25% over….let’s make the most of the next 25%!

So much for the oft-repeated canard that “no one is above the law”.

The counterintuitive truth is the Harris machine raised too much money too quickly. That raise smelled like elite spirit and a truncated campaign (can’t spend it fast enough) green lighted seemingly all admen/consultant sales pitches, however terrible. At I am sure huge mark-ups.

Today three state Governors stated they have every intention of resisting the consequences of the landslide election. One even said he would “fight to the death”. When you are in a hole you should stop digging, pal.

Isn’t it weird Joe Scarborough is looking more and acting more like the Dilbert cartoon character?

I wonder if the radical left still wants to pack the Supreme Court.

Correction: Household Survey shows 329,000 full time jobs lost over the past 11 months. It also shows about 900,000 part time jobs gained over that period. Maybe full time job loss people are taking on 2 or even 3 part time jobs. Which offer no benefits. Not great.

Establishment Survey jobs report was very weak today. Maybe it’s an anomaly. But the Household Survey, which tends to be more accurate at economic turning points, is showing full time job losses over the past 11 months of -368,000 jobs cumulatively.

Just several weeks ago betting site “Predictit” had Harris up by 17 cents to win the Presidency. Now she is down by 18 cents. A 35 cent swing!!! Looking a lot like the 1980 election.

For months (years?) Mayor Pete has been invisible. Perhaps he failed the audition.

The LBJ “bargain” of 1964 codified a system minimizing economic chances for the black underclass. The “bargain” was “we’ll give you a used couch and a daily 6 pack if you vote for us, but in exchange your children will have no opportunity whatsoever.”

Decades ago the Democratic Party passed laws designed to capture the “black vote for “ decades. LBJ said so. It’’s now decades later and the LBJ “bargain” is out of gas.

“How will you pay”, of course.

Those who defenestrated Biden, far after it was obviously necessary, simultaneously had a blind spot regarding his mean streak. Yes, Joe is well past his “use by” date, but that condition often comes with anger and vindictiveness. A “Byron Wien Surprise ”possibility: Biden might actually want Harris to lose. And try to make it happen. Just to “show ‘em”.

There’s something missing in Buffal.