Mohamed El-Erian

H/T LS. 👇🏼

With an August trade surplus of $119 billion, China is on track to set a new annual record, eclipsing last year’s eye-popping $1.2 trillion. Also striking: The scale of the underlying growth: exports jumped 25% and imports rose 28%; all against a backdrop of greater global protectionism. #economy #china #markets #trade

Two things to note as borrowing costs in advanced economies stay firmly in focus: The UK government paid a 5.82% yield on its £4.25 billion bond issuance today, the highest ever recorded by the Debt Management Office. Amazon is launching its debt sterling bond offering, illustrating how US tech giants are increasingly diversifying into international bond markets. #economy #markets #bonds #uk @amazon

Good morning. Among the notable market moves this morning: Per the CNBC charts below, Brent crude is approaching $100 a barrel, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is trading at 4.80% and the 30-year at 5.27%. #economy #markets #oil #bonds #yields https://t.co/Tsc8rWvdyL

Absent a dramatic last-minute development, Canada is set to impose retaliatory tariffs tomorrow ranging from 15% to 50% on a set of US imports, a move the US administration warned would trigger further tariffs and possible outright bans on some Canadian exports. #economy #markets #canada #trade #tariffs #tradewar

UK Chancellor John Healey struck a notably upbeat tone in his first major speech today, aiming to turn Great Britain into “Growth Britain." While maintaining Rachel Reeves’ commitment to strict fiscal discipline, he broadened the economic lens to unlock regional investment—particularly across the North—and lower business costs. (He noted that if debt interest were a Whitehall department, it would outspend Defense, the Home Office, and Justice combined.) The real test remains translating this into durable policy adoption before rising borrowing costs further squeeze both growth and the public finances. #economy #markets #growth #UK

A sharp upward revision in Ireland lifted second-quarter Eurozone GDP growth to 0.6%, beating the preliminary 0.4% estimate and marking the fastest quarterly pace in over a year. Ireland's notable gains were partly tempered by slower growth in France, a country in the fiscal spotlight alongside fellow G7 members Japan and the UK. (Bloomberg charts below.) #economy #growth #europe #eurozone #markets

Good morning. The "what" is clear; the "why" is elusive: The yen gained another 1% today to 154 per US dollar, leaving traders and analysts divided, if not bewildered over what's driving this move. (Bloomberg chart) #economy #markets #yen #fx #lapan #currency https://t.co/WK1RAeE0Lj

Against this backdrop (chart below from The Economist), and for what it's worth, I suspect that the Fed will likely be the only major central bank not to hike in September. The ECB is likely to raise rates this week, followed by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan next week. #economy #centralbanks #markets @TheEconomist

These charts are from the New York Fed paper titled "Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?" It finds that the fall in the share of the dollar in official foreign reserves around the world, from 64% in 2015 to 56% in 2025, "reflects the actions of a handful of large reserve holders" rather than "a systemic global shift away from dollar assets." It will be interesting to see what happens to both the magnitude and the composition by the end of this year. #economy #markets #dollar #centralbanks @NewYorkFed

The Economist's cover this week... @TheEconomist #tech #nvidia @nvidia https://t.co/bNIxyGD36j

My latest weekly note (one of the two links below) covers what is en even more interesting economic and market backdrop: strong U.S. data and yield moves contrasting with political jawboning on the Fed, more general sovereign bond yield volatility, and currency shifts. Looking ahead, the focus includes key US inflation prints (CPI/PPI) and the start of an interesting round of central bank decisions. https://t.co/KoCv0SVFGy https://t.co/FtIATh1VAH #economy #markets

The latest US jobs report came in significantly stronger than expected across both sides of the labor market: demand and supply. Specifically: Job Creation: Nonfarm payrolls surged from an upwardly revised 21,000 to 162,000, roughly three times the consensus forecast. Labor Supply: The labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%, beating expectations and marking its strongest level in nearly a year. Other Key Indicators: The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations. Together, these indicators point to a US labor market that remains robust with firm deman…

Posted earlier: My thoughts on what’s ahead for AI’s capital market impact as internal and external tugs of war intensify: https://t.co/a4gbmBt7dV #economy #markets #ai @ProSyn

Of particular note in the latest AAA data on US gas (petrol) prices (below): The national average price of diesel has risen to a new all-time high of $5.85 a gallon. #economy #markets #fuel #petrol #diesel @AAA_Travel https://t.co/vjeDTIuVm3

Three points on this Bloomberg’s chart detailing the surge in China’s trade surplus: The surplus has widened despite a global rise in trade barriers. After reaching nearly $700 bn through July, the full-year surplus is projected to exceed last year's record $1.2 tr. This isn't just about Chinese EVs in Europe. China's ability to manufacture throughout the value chain is eroding the development "escalator" that rising developing economies have historically pursued. #economy #markets #china #development #trade

It's “Jobs Friday” in the US, where the widely followed monthly employment report is expected to show August job gains of 53,000 (following July’s 23,000 decline), an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%, an uptick in the labor force participation rate (from 61.4% to 61.5%), and a 0.3% monthly increase in average earnings growth. As for the details, I will continue to focus on indicators regarding the supply side of the labor market. More to follow. #economy #markets #jobs #unemployment #wages

Good morning. If this FT report is confirmed, it would add to the list of historically reliable buyers of US Treasuries whose traditional role is eroding—a list that includes China (driven by geopolitics) alongside Japan and GCC economies (domestic funding demands). #economy #markets

On what’s ahead for AI’s capital market impact as internal and external tugs of war intensify. https://t.co/a4gbmBt7dV #economy #markets #ai @ProSyn

The US ISM Services report was particularly strong, both overall and relative to expectations, with nearly all activity and price subcomponents rising robustly (employment being the lone exception). Notably, overall business activity expanded to a six-month high, new orders climbed to their highest level in over three years, and prices paid reached a four-year peak. #economy #markets

While next week’s inflation print remains important, signals from Fed Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams suggesting that they currently favor unchanged rates at this month’s policy meeting have pushed the market-implied probability of a rate hike down from 66% to 55%. #economy #markets #federalreserve

Good morning. This steep two-day appreciation in the Japanese yen (Bloomberg chart below) is stoking speculation of official FX intervention ahead of a widely-anticipated rate hike by the Bank of Japan. #economy #markets #fx #japan #yen #currency https://t.co/2WTmjmHJty

“Honey, I shrunk the bananas.” 😀😀😀😀 https://t.co/mfHme2KITB

Good morning. The yield watch continues as the 10-year US Treasury tops 4.80% and the 30-year approaches 5.30%. The higher and longer yields persist, the more markets will be inclined to worry about interest rate risk turning into credit risk. (Bloomberg charts below.) #economy #markets #bonds #yields

Both WTI and Brent crude are up 5% todat, both now trading above $90 a barrel following the escalation of US military strikes on Iran. #economy #oil #energy #markets https://t.co/IYEohy2RIo

In line with the consensus forecast, annual Eurozone inflation rose from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, its highest level since September 2023. While core and services inflation were more contained—both falling somewhat—this headline print solidifies market expectations of an interest rate hike when the ECB’s Governing Council meets next week. #economy #markets #europe #inflation #eurozone #ECB @ecb

Good morning. With oil prices higher, government bond yields are on the move again around the world. One of the most notable moves is in the UK—what I have characterized here and elsewhere as one of the “high beta” advanced economies—where the 10-year has traded up to a level not seen in almost 20 years (Bloomberg data below), while the 30-year yield is at a level not seen in almost 30 years. #economy #markets #bonds #yields #oil

Please find below the monthly performance summary table for major asset classes/assets. #markets #stocks #gold #oil #bitcoin https://t.co/cYMUN1UVxM

This Bloomberg report is consistent with the view that GCC members are redirecting more of their own capital generation toward domestic priorities. For international markets, this translates to a tighter capital supply just as demand is rising. For additional background, see this FT column from March: https://t.co/UefZGBEldA #economy #markets @FT

The rise in longer-term US Treasury yields continued this morning, fully erasing the initial reaction to the US Treasury’s intervention announcement. (Bloomberg data below.) #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/Yve8wPYcyI