Danielle DiMartino Booth

Let’s get to the bottom of these critical issues.

Buckle up for delays, road warriors.

“Long term money has already been repriced. The unanswered question is how much of the economy has actually finished adjusting to that new price.”

Incredibly good and sad read.

“The historical lesson is that during the last major housing cycle, the housing warning came first. By October 2007 the stock market was still near record highs while the machinery underneath housing and credit had already begun breaking down.”

Fickle is as fickle does.

At least they won’t need to monetize it any time soon.

We looked the other way back then…

ICYMI

Absent controlling war, Fed’s “only way to stop 2nd & 3rd order inflation is to weaken the rest of economy enough that businesses can no longer keep passing higher energy & freight costs through, while workers lose enough bargaining power that wages stop chasing those increases.”

This ended splendidly in Rome.

What DOES it mean when the markets gets the funk on?

Define “collapse”? You looking for 100 cents lost on the dollar? That’s a high bar! Via @WSJ “distress rate in commercial real-estate collateralized loan obligations, a type of securitized real-estate lending, hit 28% in August, a jump from 19% in July, data from @cred_iq shows”

“It was just a misunderstanding with our accountants.”

Quote of the week by @pboockvar “We have a U.S. economy that is mainly dependent on this CapEx orgy and upper income consumers that are highly reliant on a stock market that is hugely hooked on GenAI and this CapEx spend.” Ain’t circularly codependency grand?

https://t.co/ZtrMk4N00G https://t.co/JG2U2GQ6nq

The Weekly Quill — Putting on the Gridz — The Data Center Buildout Upside Log in to read now — the QI Research Deep Dive into the upside of Data Center Buildout https://t.co/iynH3JSXEI https://t.co/jqTOJAaQEA

https://t.co/lwbgP51VRI #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #marketplace #economy https://t.co/MepgzusjiL

These headlines are multiplying like overachieving bunnies!

The Weekly Quill — Putting on the Gridz — The Data Center Buildout Upside Log in to read now — the QI Research Deep Dive into the upside of Data Center Buildout https://t.co/ezMalh30hg https://t.co/ory5muSOZt

True. Pay attention.

Yes, but wouldn't it be grand of wages were growing as fast as they were in 2020? Via @indeed today: "While overall growth has been stable over past 6 months, pay gains aren’t being distributed equally, w/wage growth for middle-wage occupations lagging." https://t.co/PGJuYLhHLS https://t.co/TSB8aSCD8V

The consumer is strong as an ox if they can withstand this assault in the form of real paycheck shrinkage.

ASS-ume. Didn’t your teachers teach you the derivation of that word. There is no such things as assumptions in markets that go their own way. (Cue someone dropping in a link to that great stock my.) cc @SantiagoAuFund

👇👇👇

See WA WARN notices. Off the rails.

In the private world of privates, we have zero visibility into credit stress. The closest proxy we have is the bottom of the stack. https://t.co/Hq8cbXOHNi

Truth. If claims are so low, why the persistence in Google searches for “Drive for Uber.” And why are we directed to follow claims data if less than ONE-IN-FOUR of those officially classified as “Unemployed” by the @BLS_gov are collecting unemployment benefits? #TradeTheNarrativeOwnTheTruth

To the salient points @DrJStrategy ignoring data will be costly if this scenario plays out w/the @federalreserve staring down the barrel of multiple policy errors. Kowtowing to the financial markets has not proven wise & flouts its stated mission "to promote the public interest."

Yes, but the redemption absolute percentage request eased to 14.7% in Q3 compared to 16.8% in Q2 for heaven’s sake!!!