Danielle DiMartino Booth

Broken Bow was useful for a hot minute. The number of homes being constructed was unreal...presumably to become the next hot thing for Airbnb jocks.

ICYMI

At some point, deals start getting pulled (...that was sarcasm).

Wise words @AdamJJosephson "Banks’ provisions for credit losses have been falling as % of total loans for 2 yrs as have net charge-offs leading some to conclude that credit quality is good even though such analysis ignores what’s happening w/(possibly ongoing) loan modifications"

Interesting Sept Existing Home details w/2nd sub 4M SAAR @business Sales in South & West rose 2.8% Sales in Midwest were flat & fell in NE “Q4 outlook for closing activity will clearly be down, maybe even measurably down. We’re seeing more delays in contracts w/rising rates.”

The poster-child sport for the Quiet Quitting era.

Note that many straggler markets are beginning to come under pressure. cc @m3_melody

ICYMI for those who said this would/could never happen. The part that bites, though, is what’s to come The truth is, the pendulum will swing back as uncontrollably as it did when it was swinging violently in the opposite extreme in the good old days of forever mortgage moratoria

Mom worked @SocialSecurity 37 years, mostly turning down disability claimants. UK is worse! "Among those who got new cars (collecting disability) last year-40 people whose primary medical condition was tennis elbow, 50 w/wheat intolerance & 320 w/dyslexia" https://t.co/o3GvlfSqqR

ICYMI Free cash flow isn’t all it appears to be, and investors need a lot more transparency on the cash-flow statement than they’re getting now. Nvidia’s recent changes should only be a start. https://t.co/EVg7cmi4SU ht @jessefelder

Is there a mechanic in the house?

Streaming Blues? @netflix to cut ~5% of its staff as early as next week. The company had 16,000 full-time employees as of the end of last year, 68% in the US, according to a regulatory filing. @PuckNews

The Weekly Quill — Peace in the Valley Between the Rich & the Poor Read NOW https://t.co/pTKWnkASn0 #dimartinobooth #economy #interestrates #federalreserve https://t.co/cSd9x8GGqc

Via @AdamJJosephson on @Delta miss & cut came even as it’s among consumer-related companies benefiting most from the K-shaped economy. Its premium cabin revenue continues to grow rapidly, well in excess of its main cabin revenue, such that the former is now higher than the latter https://t.co/rfHv0DTqmZ

Perspective.

With wages having fully round-tripped as if the pandemic-era surge had never occurred, a question: Should wage inflation be factored into monetary policymaking? Does the size of a worker's paycheck affect what he/she can/cannot buy & how much they can pay for things? @SoberLook https://t.co/1fXsHVf1LS

The Weekly Quill — Peace in the Valley Between the Rich & the Poor Read NOW https://t.co/gavpq6O0CZ #dimartinobooth #economy #interestrates #federalreserve https://t.co/FIfjrxmlau

GREAT to run into my friend @Paul_Schatz

All bets are off if sellers finally capitulate. And I mean FINALLY. All those bidding wars (remember those?) created the most stubborn home sellers in history. And no, it wasn’t just golden handcuffs of ultra-low mortgage rates. Otherwise HELOCs wouldn’t be flying off the shelves

AI will change something! But it’s more likely to “just” be tacking an extra trillion onto the $16 trillion corporate debt market. Whee!

👇👇👇

Danielle DiMartino Booth Appears on ‘Making Money with Charles Payne’ To Discuss the Fed https://t.co/HxyYMpaNZv #economy #dimartinobooth #interestrates #federalreserve https://t.co/D1jXll18Hi

“The data offer grounds for that distinction: trimmed-mean PCE inflation at 2 %, food-at-home CPI inflation at 2.1 %, below its long-term average, rising productivity and solid employment.”

cc @m3_melody

Within spitting distance of 2019.

Join me on @business radio with @scarletfu to talk Fed, macro and markets.

What’s off is a historic disconnect between the number of unemployed Americans collecting unemployment benefits (which don’t begin to cover living expenses) & official data most traders take as face value believing it represents true labor market slack. Add GIG & mystery solved.

Proprietary depositor data @BankofAmerica receives via @USDOL flows into the bank’s accounts.

This @BankofAmerica chart reassuring until you factor in GIG. Only 1-in-4 unemployed COLLECTING benefits. Through different prism @philippadunne if same % of unemployed in 1990-2007 were collecting today initial claims would be 330k, not 204k & continuing claims, 2.4M, not 1.7M. https://t.co/OFReoj8Bks

“If the outage drags on, Venezuela becomes more dependent on the global fuel market at exactly the wrong time. That is why the duration of the outage matters much more than the headline 310,000 barrel capacity number.”