Jim Bianco

What is the long-term impact of this war? A good measure might be to look at deferred futures contracts. The blue line is the December 2026 Brent Crude Oil Futures contract. It made a new high today, holding its uptrend, and up 42+% YTD. https://t.co/SFgmK8brNg

@HFI_Research https://t.co/Mv6rUVvcon

I wrote the repost about the changing nature of war. This chart is unusual ... war is now bad for defense stocks? Maybe the stock market also sees that the defense procurement business model has to change, and that legacy defense contractors will struggle. https://t.co/g1cKUbbzto

Trump says three days JPM on April 21st: Full shut-in is estimated at around Day 30 of the blockade — which, given the blockade went into effect the weekend of April 19–20, points to approximately May 19–20, 2026.

Note that the US response to Ghalibaf's threats below is that Iran is three days away from "tank top," as Trump said this morning on Fox News. This means they are running out of oil storage (because they cannot ship due to the US blockade), and shutting down oil production is extremely damaging (true). This will prompt Iran to race to the negotiating table to secure a peace deal on US terms, keeping its oil business intact and its main source of income functioning. However, Iran has one more "card" to play: dump 2 million barrels/day into the Persian Gulf, creating an ecological disaster? Would they do this? See what Ghalibaf threatened b…

The start of the Monday morning stock market pump?

This is as significant as when Roger Bannister broke the 4-minute mile in 1954.

No War No Peace No Shipping No Crude, LNG, Fertilizer and Helium

Bitcoin reacting to this story https://t.co/RsKWdHirgM

Assuming Senator Tillis votes yes, Warsh shouldd pass on a party line vote of 13 to 11. It should then move to the full senate for confirmation before May 15th (Powell’s last day as Chairman) There is no filibuster for confirmation votes and Warsh should have at least 50 votes. All republicans (53 in total now) and possibly Senator John Fetterman (D, PA)

Screaming red headlines in the last five minutes that are changing the equation .... *DOJ EXPECTED TO DROP CRIMINAL PROBE OF POWELL, ABC SAYS *PIRRO SAYS SHE'S CLOSING POWELL PROBE INTO FED BUILDING COSTS https://t.co/W2VQ8VSPZy update https://t.co/L2bNxF1LG7

Trump below: We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. --- If this were true, oil would be $60 today! https://t.co/r01seiG2fE

The Iranian Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was in Pakistan talking with JD Vance earlier this month. He's "our guy." Ghalibaf's legislative body is ready to pass this. But don't worry, Trump said yesterday, we are going to sign a peace deal on Friday!

Is the greatest investor not named Warren Buffett alive today sitting in a Brooklyn jail???

How can dozens of ships defeat the US Blockade, as the FT repost below says is happening? The map shows how a tanker can travel from Kharg Island to Mumbai while remaining within the territorial waters of Pakistan and India. The US Blockade Rules and UNCLOS (UN Law of the Sea) give ships the right of innocent passage through a coastal state’s territorial sea, and it is the coastal state that will regulate that passage. Once in Pakistani or Indian waters, they can transfer their cargo or continue without entering international waters. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad Follow-up ... Here is the US blockade. Run this line into Pakistani territoria…

In other words, "tough guy" Trump threatening Bridges and Power Plants will emerge again this weekend (market closed), only to soften that stance Monday morning (market open).

Trump: I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted. - So: No war No peace No ships No oil, LNG, fertilizer, or helium https://t.co/gCFhpSD3HZ TACO Tuesday

It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick? Today was Warsh’s nomination hearing and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D, MA) called him “Sock Puppet” of Trump. This term then came up several times during the hearing.

Yesterday, when markets were closed, Trump threatened to bomb power plants and bridges. Now, today, when markets are open ...

The Iranian Foreign minister is now posting Bloomberg symbols and talking about “vibe trading.”

I believe all five “tough guy” posts are on the weekend (market closed) while markets hours tweets are “we have a deal/ceasefire!” Watch for a tone change tomorrow morning.

This one trolls Trump over insider trading of prediction markets and manipulating stock prices. It actually pretty funny.

The Mets are now 0-10 since this happened. Update: Now 0-11

Interesting video from Kpler via the CNBC story below. It shows the shipping activity in the Persian Gulf today. After it was announced that the Strait was open, dozens of ships turned on their AIS (GPS) and sailed to the Strait. Then they abruptly stopped, U-turned, and turned off their AIS. In the end, the traffic that went through was no different than any other day of the war. Shippers are still thinking it is closed. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad https://t.co/ShxuLb0JAe

Former President of Russia warning Russia will bomb drone factories in Europe that supply Ukraine. Why? Russia is either losing the war or mightily struggling against Ukraine. And it is drones that are giving Russia fits. Welcome to the 21st century. Follow up

Does anyone remember Dec 21, 2017, when Long Island Iced Tea rebranded as Long Blockchain? It was up 183% that day. It was less than a week after the peak in Bitcoin's price, which then went on to fall 80% over the next year. I know, this time is different. Allbirds flashback https://t.co/1G90T4TLZS

https://t.co/dDP0lfXg1T

The S&P 500 all-time closing high was January 27, 2026, at 6,78.60 As I write this, the S&P 500 is at 6955, less than 14 points away. The last six months of closing the S&P 500 is below. The green annotation shows that it is up ~10% is 10 trading days. https://t.co/2Pkijhc7eA The "deal on" hype machine is now in high gear *TRUMP SAYS IRAN TALKS COULD HAPPEN OVER NEXT TWO DAYS: NYP If a deal opens the Strait and everything starts moving, these markets are correctly priced. If no deal ... it could get "interesting."

@mercoglianos This is just VLCCs It’s about 30to 40 more (dark blue) https://t.co/Ny200ipwab

TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume is 17.974M, the lowest since April 2023. https://t.co/YUR0l3HYaD The MOVE Index is "the bond market VIX." It measures the implied volatility of 30-day options from the 2-year note to the 30-year bond. Bond volatility has been crashing over the last 2 weeks. This is consistent with the collapse in TLT volume shown above. https://t.co/sUbchFyeTq