Jim Bianco

Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech Rational Dissent Episode 013 Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000. -- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Sponsor 02:13 - Defining Bubbles: Tulips, Dot-Com & 2008 06:37 - Bubble Expansion vs. Market Peak 09:34 - S&P 500 Valuations & AI Concentration 17:20 - Why Equities Require "Hopes and Dreams" 21:52 - Are We Closer to 1996 or 2000? 26:27 - AI Monetization: Frontier Models vs. Applications 32:10 - The Real Risk: Overcapacity & Technological Disruption 36:27 - Conclusion & …

Nominal growth (inflation PLUS real growth) determines the proper level of NOMINAL yields. This means real growth has a role in setting NOMINAL yields. NOMINAL yields are more than a reaction to inflation expectations, as I explained here. https://t.co/0bdPnwpo4m

A boy that cease-fire…

What a mis-read of Frederic Bastiat!

1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%. https://t.co/owS3WGJiom 2/5 No list of AI-related companies is perfect. We use a classification drawn from J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest: 29 direct-AI companies, eight utilities, and four capital-equipment companies. https://t.co/vo1URxGceM 3/5 We recreated the concentration chart from Michael Hartnett’s BofA Flow Show. We replaced the current-period (green) with our broader 41-co…

He did not talk to Trump

A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE

Too much doom porn

Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID. Chapters 00:00 - K Shaped Setup 01:59 - Income Deciles Breakdown 02:38 - Where Money Comes From 03:29 - Spending Essentials Gap 04:50 - Who Drives Consumption 06:02 - Affordability Poll Reality 07:45 - Wages Versus Inflation 09:27 - Stocks Versus Sentiment 12:45 - Can Policy Fix It 14:42 - Fed Limits Fiscal Trap 20:08 - If Markets Roll Over 24:44 - Social Un…

I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G

The 4-week average of initial claims equaled its lowest level ever (57 years). I cut off the peaks so we can better see the troughs. -- For decades, this was THE gauge to measure the labor market. Now it's making a case this is the best labor market in our lifetime. https://t.co/XkUIcZVagc

If SpaceX ($SPCX) was in the $SPX now, AI-related stocks would be 51% of the index. With Anthropic and OpenAI coming public, add them to the $SPX in 2027 and AI would be ~55% of the $SPX. The last time a single theme was >50% of the $SPX was the railroads in the 19th century. Here is the list (I use Michael Cemblast's list, it is as good as any list I've seen.) https://t.co/B9uvzTWQCO

The Soxs have played in Chicago for 126 seasons (since 1901), and this is the first time they've been the most expensive ticket in baseball. This is Book of Revelation stuff. The get-in price for the Sox-Guardians game in Chicago on August 8 was $31. Today, the minimum to get into the stadium is $296. Bitcoin wishes it had a run like the Soxs the last two months! https://t.co/anrkbS1wFL

Try to contain your pure joy over this. https://t.co/zh3EMtwL71

1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg 3/3 Yield and FUTURE returns are strongly related. The higher the yield, the bette…

If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and Tesla Inc. rose. SpaceX shares are up 13% since the start of October, while Tesla has gained 6.7%.

Here is my post in its original form https://t.co/7dT0ueymMo

A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. https://t.co/AcrblgHGGS

I agree with @AlexMalitas that the CCC spread widening is a bunch of "problem children" and not a signal of wider credit problems. Too many are over-reading this. Confirming this, @AlexMalitas also noted that Ba spreads (blue repost) are not widening. ---- Which companies have people overreacting to CCC spread widening? * Acrisure LLC / Fin Inc: Insurance brokerage built through hundreds of agency acquisitions, expanding into fintech, payroll and cybersecurity services. * Affinity Interactive: Formerly Affinity Gaming. Operates regional casinos, mostly in Nevada, plus properties in Missouri and Iowa. * Altice Financing SA: Financing enti…

The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco On Why It’s Time To Start Buying Bonds https://t.co/SyHexlpDlA

Rational Dissent Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade. --- Chapters - Introduction & Risks - Energy Market Breakdown - Europe Natural Gas Watch - AI Debt and Credit Spreads - Oracle and CCC Stress - Basis Trade Explained - Funding Market Triggers - Crowded Trade and Transparency - Energy and Global Fallout - One Number to W…

His bluff got called

My colleague and fellow “Rational Dissenter” @AlexMalitas joined X! Give him a follow, you won't be disappointed.

1/2 Correct! And their raise at work (orange) has been falling behind cumulative inflation (blue) since the end of the COVID recession. https://t.co/FKq7nRu1nr 2/2 By the way, the opposite was true from 2009 to 2020. raises at work (orange) outpaced cumulative inflation (blue). This is why there was no talk about a "k-shape" economy. The bottom half kept pace with rising prices (if not outrun them in the second half, as shown below). https://t.co/EAPF6wJ1Be

7/8 Combined government and corporate interest costs are now 3.8% of GDP. This is the highest since 2008 but only slightly above the 65-year average of 3.5%, and well below the 1990 peak of 5.9%. https://t.co/1yMiXhMsQT 8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates? Because way too many think debt is the MAIN driver of higher yields, interest costs are the burden, and the solution is financial repression such as yield curve control. This would be disastrous. If yields are MORE responding to higher economic growth and sticky inflation, as we have long been making the case, forcing interest rates unnaturally low (aka fin…

1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵 https://t.co/zBzpq4Mada 2/8 Federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP (blue) is expected to top 100% when the 2026 ratio is reported. The Congressional Budget Office (orange) expects this ratio to blast to a new high of 120% in the next 10 years. https://t.co/8f6tqTC9Ws 3/8 So, is the ever-increasing amount of debt above driving bond yields higher? We would argue the answer is largely no. And any response, such as yield curve control or other financial repression would not…

2/7 The Fed talk this week (Williams first then Jefferson) knocked down the probability of an Oct 28 rate hike (blue) from 70% on Mon to 25% Fri. Today's payroll "miss" (below expectations) worked for this narrative. But the 10-year yield (orange) did not follow. https://t.co/q1ovlrSEQ9 3/7 Wait! The 10yr yield depends on more than Fed prob. Maybe other things, like crude, drove it higher. I agree that crude matters. But over the last 3+ weeks, crude (green) is DOWN $2 while the 10yr yield (orange) is UP almost 40 bps. Yields are more than following crude. https://t.co/gZRDcV8dO0 4/7 Now see the 2yr yield (red) and the prob of a hik…

"Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." NY Fed Pres John Williams speech today (below) pushed the prob. of a down to hike to 44% (chart). Will this lack of Fed "panic" cause bond traders to "panic" bond yields higher? Check back Fri. after payrolls. https://t.co/K0NCOvWkK2

An inside look at future Treasury strategy meetings. https://t.co/jC3Zao8T85 https://t.co/vYPeIyfUUw

Stop me if you've heard this before. Trump: Iran called, and they really want to make a deal.