Lyn Alden

@Devon_Eriksen_ Harry is cool for YA but it’s harder to see it from Harry’s perspective if you’re not a guy. I checked out on the books but watched the movies, and was the same age as the actors. I attached to Hermione, but if I had a female Draco reference I’d likely be drawn there instead.

Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance?

And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train.

Rather than saying the thing, I’ll just point out they vote harder than other ages do.

I briefly got into some nostalgic Pokémon tweets and now that’s my new “for you” feed. It’s like bond yields mixed with Pokémon now. It’s almost as though the “for you” feed is a snapshot of your weakest moments locked in for the next few weeks. If only there was a conversation about the impact of centralized algorithms to consider. Oh wait: https://t.co/6wtGMqN4xV Mewtwo was my favorite Pokémon back in the 1990s. There’s a decent link between him and Jade of Stolguard, probably. The insanely powerful creation that seeks what to do with itself.

@dampedspring @jewishC3PO I do my best to quantify things in terms of 1) how they impact markets (quite fine) and how 2) how they impact socioeconomics (not so fine).

On fiscal dominance nuances.

@dampedspring Fiscal dominance begins when 1) it’s *unclear* that interest rates fix inflation (ie on the border zone) and 2) it’s not that the Treasury allows/disallows it (although that’s a possibility) but rather the central bank just starts making exceptions for financial stability. @dampedspring Border zones matter because that's where money is made. Early calls. 2023 was the start of non-cyclical fiscal dominance, which means the train won't stop. Can trace it back earlier to 2018-2019 for forecasting stages, too, but a bit more cyclical. https://t.co/HgeMIWx76N

This was one of my early formulations: https://t.co/gTH0nUyZJG https://t.co/A0j5l6lUww

If you want fiscal dominance in a chart, here it is.

Over time, AI will make informational content cheaper and cheaper. What's left? Silicon Valley people call it "taste", and I think that's valid. Financially, that means signal. What you'll notice from me is what I choose to object to. The exceptions. That's signal. Now, I will mess around for fun, too. I'll share video game preferences. Anime. All of my crazy sci fi work. That's relevant because I share it on instinct and you get to know me. Personhood vs AI. But if I talk about macro, it's likely going to be signaling, differentiated. Ironically, I post less lately because I've been correct. I called for fiscal dominance, inflation i…

Some people ask me if I'm less involved in FinTwit these days. My answer is not really. I love y'all. It's my work. But as social media gets sillier and with AI, rather than repeat what I've said, I'm more selective. Quality over quantity. I try to emphasize signal. What you care about is when I have an exception. Remember that. When I take time to say, no. When I want to clarify something amid the AI generated nonsense. That's when I'll ask you to pay attention.

I appreciate the mention. Great discussion. I'd clarify that it's not just about what's "allowed." Rather, it's about what's mathematically baked in. The US is pre-running potential recessions with 7% stimulatory deficits. That shapes potential recessions; doesn't outlaw them.

Nobody is "losing the end" of the bond curve. The yield curve is flat, not steep. Rather, some people are losing the argument for what interest rates should be in this environment and the market is adjusting accordingly. Nothing stops this train. https://t.co/MC7PCY4JFz

Alright, here are my 9 games. https://t.co/z14BX8gAEY Final Fantasy 7 and 8 might take out Star Fox actually. Tough one.

I'm actually growing followers faster than ever but it feels artificial. I dunno. I have a feeling tech bros are messing with algorithms here relative to prior baselines. Like inserting weirdness where things were just organic.

The older you get, the more you jive with Obi Wan. https://t.co/LdLYHJdiRy This dude was right from the start.

The launch of so-called laptop should never have happened in any context. It's not a tactical error. It's a strategic error, clear ahead of time. Just had no business to exist outside of grift, and that was clear ahead of time. https://t.co/Vq1uHzfiau

As a society, we fully optimized car handles and made them perfect. And then we just started messing around, so you have to guess how a handle works when exiting a car.

Hey I know yields are crashing up and the global financial system is on fire, but have you seen these cute little animated posters for The Stolguard Incident? https://t.co/gOSr39XESv "A skillful and compelling dystopian tale that balances horrors with heartfelt moments." -Kirkus Reviews https://t.co/mhVVViBO3V @cryptoquick look there are some heartfelt moments between the violence. ^-^ It’s actually quite sweet if you get used to all the blood.

https://t.co/ZD1be4O04V

Ya'll are so crazy I'm writing another sci fi novel to remain sane. You're going to love it, though.

Howard Marks with a new memo on fiscal-driven inflation and related matters: https://t.co/uxGwbP5Rte

There are moments where I wonder if I’ll run out of jokes. And then I see posts like this.

The fact that people still care about 25 basis points is evidence that they don’t yet appreciate the depth of the fiscal dominance we are in. Anyway, have a nice weekend.

First point: Bearer assets are important. Second point: How does Cory walk and do this.

People want Jarvis. Or an AI version of Alfred. They want Jarvis/Alfred to handle all mundane details in their life, and we are nearing that. Right now, they have localized chat and decent agents that still struggle with basics but are on the trajectory.

As much as I love traveling, I'm back in America now. Ready to lock back in.

https://t.co/fzzgMGvswv

In Egypt, you can be at a high end restaurant and have street cats come up and say hi. Some consider this a problem but not me. 🥰 https://t.co/JomIpw67JC You have to wash up afterward, but it’s worth it to give some lovin’ https://t.co/RNeXMZsSaO