Lyn Alden

Me showing up to a macro interview in the coming weeks and getting asked about Europe.

The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues.

I’m not a fan of media concentration, but I do like this.

Your occasional reminder that nobody has "lost control of the long end" of the bond market. The yield curve is flat. Yields are broadly high, from short to long, because inflation is persistently above-target. https://t.co/x8OigvaiSc

This came up in my feed. Who wins in their prime? At this level, it could go either way. I'm inclined to say that Ali wins vs Tyson 3 out of 5. They have similar weight but Ali has a major height/reach advantage, along with his speed. Tyson has knockout power advantage but he has to land. These fights would be *insane*. @nic_carter what’s your take? Ali vs Tyson in their prime?

@elonizdumb And I've publicly supported the Elon pay package plan. It was earned. https://t.co/KnsxmQXAsh

Zuko and Katara vs Azula was a better climax fight than Aang vs Ozai, imo. Ozai was too easy, too bland, vs the literal avatar. Zuko had to beat his technical superior Azula with superior wisdom, i.e. a thematic win w/ what he learned, and Katara had to seal it. Great battle. 98% of my following is like "what are you talking about"

I like to go out of my way to promote my least-sensationalist interviewers. This was one of them. We talked about investing psychology rather than what was going to blow up next. No thumbnails of me smiling in front of a background of burning dollars. 😅 Good listen, imo.

https://t.co/17TIebmwSN

Orange Juice is happy to announce its CTO, Elias Martinez Cohen, previously from Nvidia, and with over a decade working in AI. More here: https://t.co/CCuT22PbNi

The feed is all Avatar/Korra now. Macro and that show.

Globally yes. Locally no.

Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation gets, the harder it is to be the one to stand up there and try to explain why things aren't weird. https://t.co/mrVeRDoudU

Fiscal dominance. And it begs the question; if hikes don’t have the same effect, is going further really the answer?

As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising. The yield curve is still flat, nothing is broken. It’s almost expected. But now, the more people talk about it, the more I might become neutral on bonds. https://t.co/uOrymG3qRA

@itslilyszabo @Devon_Eriksen_ The entire idea that Slytherin kids are “bad” or unworthy of a point of view is something I’d push back upon. Nature wants diversity. Some people are publicly virtuous. Others might be subtly effective.

@Devon_Eriksen_ I actually love her original art on the cover. Same for Marcus and Miranda. All feels like it fits, although admittedly humans including myself tend to lock onto our first impressions.

Brilliant.

I really enjoyed this chart and history book by @MebFaber For people who like macro and market history, it’s a really cool physical resource. https://t.co/V6n5Iqv5Ld

Who ever thought Voldemort was cool? He was never cool. If anything, he was so uncool that he was hard to care about and that was a flaw of the series. Wizard Hitler but lower energy. Dumbledore was cool.

@Devon_Eriksen_ Harry is cool for YA but it’s harder to see it from Harry’s perspective if you’re not a guy. I checked out on the books but watched the movies, and was the same age as the actors. I attached to Hermione, but if I had a female Draco reference I’d likely be drawn there instead.

Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance?

And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train.

Rather than saying the thing, I’ll just point out they vote harder than other ages do.

I briefly got into some nostalgic Pokémon tweets and now that’s my new “for you” feed. It’s like bond yields mixed with Pokémon now. It’s almost as though the “for you” feed is a snapshot of your weakest moments locked in for the next few weeks. If only there was a conversation about the impact of centralized algorithms to consider. Oh wait: https://t.co/6wtGMqN4xV Mewtwo was my favorite Pokémon back in the 1990s. There’s a decent link between him and Jade of Stolguard, probably. The insanely powerful creation that seeks what to do with itself.

@dampedspring @jewishC3PO I do my best to quantify things in terms of 1) how they impact markets (quite fine) and how 2) how they impact socioeconomics (not so fine).

On fiscal dominance nuances.

@dampedspring Fiscal dominance begins when 1) it’s *unclear* that interest rates fix inflation (ie on the border zone) and 2) it’s not that the Treasury allows/disallows it (although that’s a possibility) but rather the central bank just starts making exceptions for financial stability. @dampedspring Border zones matter because that's where money is made. Early calls. 2023 was the start of non-cyclical fiscal dominance, which means the train won't stop. Can trace it back earlier to 2018-2019 for forecasting stages, too, but a bit more cyclical. https://t.co/HgeMIWx76N

This was one of my early formulations: https://t.co/gTH0nUyZJG https://t.co/A0j5l6lUww

If you want fiscal dominance in a chart, here it is.