Arthur Hayes

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k. Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause “transitory inflation”. JAYPOW told me so. I’ll expound on that in my next essay, that’s the TLDR for your TikTok peanut brain. My grammar was a bit off. What I mean is that the price is more likely to hi $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time and we ain’t looking back until $250k.

Another good sign for $BTC, my custom US bank credit supply index is trending higher. Doesn’t mean we are done dumping but the odds are shifting more bullish. https://t.co/Tn2jf7JZaq

JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.

Fed Day Mofos: Will they indicate when/if QT ends? Over in the EU: Will the re-arming of the EU paid for with printed EUR overwhelm the near-term -ve fiscal impulse of the US? That's the big macro question. If yes, correction over, if no, hold on to your butts.

And so another epic JAYPOW season comes to an end. I can't wait for next year. Time to stack some sats in the meantime. Yachtzee https://t.co/WElpCgvtWL

$BTC trades 24/7, anyone globally with internet can trade, it cannot be printed, failure results in bankruptcy or liquidation. No country’s finances are tied to $BTC going up in price. Stonks trade 8/5, only certain people can trade them, they cannot be printed, failure if you are politically connected results in a bailout. Marginal tax receipts in Pax Americana are directly tied to the stock market. It will get a bailout, it just depends on whether your portfolio is still alive when it occurs. $BTC is a true free market, stonks are not. Therefore in a fiat liquidity crisis, $BTC leads stocks on down and upside.

The plan: Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market. Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under. THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make their country great again. THEN you load up the truck. Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potential unrealised losses.

An ugly start to the week. Looks like $BTC will retest $78k. If it fails, $75k is next in the crosshairs. There are a lot of options OI struck $70-$75k, if we get into that range it will be violent. https://t.co/q4cq0rthGJ

Let the Bond Hunger Games begin. If global savers can’t or won’t buy govt bonds, the central banks or commercial banks will print money to buy them instead. Whoever prints first, prints best. https://t.co/tE3T4D9dxY

When in crisis, print the money. Germany amended its constitution practically overnight to green light borrowing money for defence. Let this be instructive on how govts will choose to finance the new world order whatever it ends up looking like. https://t.co/qHf8uGqOuV

As promised, "KISS of Death" details how Trump will dominate JAYPOW into printing money once more. In the meantime $70k $BTC is still on the cards. https://t.co/6HKIBp9fJF https://t.co/GlzHKCj4sb

Nothing new here. Just words. Lmk when they get congressional approval to borrow money and or revalue the gold price higher. Without that they have no money to buy #bitcoin and #shitcoins.

Fam can you please explain the joke, cause I don’t like missing out on humour. https://t.co/hq5UuFzaIk

Trump is putting JAYPOW in a corner, and rate cuts and QE will come. But we must go through the valley of death first. My essay "KISS of Death" drops next Tuesday.

How To Win in Crypto with Akshat Vaidya https://t.co/Y5za0nQaLE via @YouTube

Vibe https://t.co/KoJdexWEmR

We are making lower lows in this current wave. I was tempted to add risk this morning, but looking at this price action I think we have one more violent wave down below $80k, most likely over the weekend, then crickets for a while. Hold on to your butts! https://t.co/e6nshZejAb

Fam, if $BTC hits $70k which fast food joint are we applying for?

Record outflows fits with an unwind of futures positions at CME due to basis compression.

Now we chill out, retrace, and wait. If Trump can't pass his budget which spends more and hikes debt ceiling, resume capitulation to levels pre the election day victory $75k to $70k. This is test of how strong Trump's hold is on the Republican party. https://t.co/sFUq12OSIY

#Bitcoin goblin town incoming: Lots of $IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries. If that basis drops as $BTC falls, then these funds will sell $IBIT and buy back CME futures. These funds are in profit, and given basis is close to UST yields they will unwind during US hours and realise their profit. $70,000 I see you mofo!

Mofos still owe me $6mm

Preach

.@VitalikButerin will you advocate to roll back the chain to help @Bybit_Official ? @VitalikButerin @Bybit_Official My own view as a mega $ETH bag holder is $ETH stopped being money in 2016 after the DAO hack hardfork. If the community wanted to do it again, I would support it because we already voted no on immutability in 2016 y not do it again? @VitalikButerin @Bybit_Official no one has a problem with #defi on CZ’s computer $BNB. Why not make $ETH @VitalikButerin computer?

$S https://t.co/3F5FSV71HC

Substack trying to cancel me. Don’t worry all the articles are up on Medium or BitMEX Blog https://t.co/xDAa3m61Rz https://t.co/N4uNh9c3UL

The game is the game. Obvi I think memecoins are a net benefit, but if ur a politician and u rug your supporters there might not be consequences within #crypto but your political career might take a hit. Worth it - depends on whether u value your supporters or not.

“I didn’t promote it, I shared it” this is the line of this cycle. It might be better than: “Steady lads …” — Do Kwon

The rug edition

You are so fucked m8, I hope you got mad martial arts skills cause last I heard degens in Rosario don’t play