Gene Munster

John says "AI is an important investment area and we will be doing that on top of our other investment efforts". My take: They're going to be spending more on AI. We don't know how much more. $AAPL

$AAPL up 4% does not reflect how good the guide was. In a vacuum, I would have expected the stock to be up closer to 10% on that guide. I believe the reason is investors are thinking about what's after this super cycle. The answer is growth will move back to 5-10%, but all of the goodness of growth over the past few quarters lays the groundwork for the next super cycle likely in three years. Yes, that's a long ways out, but it's a carrot on the horizon that's here to stay.

$AAPL June revenue growth target of 14-17% vs. Street at 9%. Cook says Mac will be constrained in June which means the real growth is slightly better.

Strong guide from $AAPL. Stock now up 2%. June revenue growth target of 14-17% vs. Street at 9%. Gross margin at 47.5%-48.5% vs. Street at 47.6%.

CFO says capital returns remains important to long term shareholder value. He also said, the needs of the business come before capital returns.

CFO Kevan Parekh says if not for supply constraints, revenue would have been higher in March. That's a good sign for the upcoming guide. Stock still down 1%. Investors want to hear the guide. $AAPL

Cook reiterates Siri coming this year. He also told CNBC that he's excited for the new Siri at WWDC. All eyes are on WWDC26 June 8th.

Cook says the iPhone would have been stronger if not for supply constraints. I'm surprised the stock did not move higher. $AAPL

Tim and John kick off the $AAPL call. John assures investors that he will be thoughtful and deliberate around financial decisions. As for products, he previewed he would not talk about upcoming product details, and says its the most exciting times to build products. My take, that “time” is AI time.

$AAPL investors need to start thinking about iPhone growth next year. This fiscal year iPhone will grow around 17%. Next year the Street is expecting 5%. The 5% is ahead of the growth we saw in 2023-2025. FY25 - 4% FY24 - 0% FY23 - down 2%. The key question is will the real iPhone please stand up. Is it a flat business or growing mid single digits. My take: I believe every third year it should grow around 10%, and around 5% in the other years.

For the $AAPL call. Revenue guide for June: I expect 10-12% ($104B-$106B) This has been a super cycle. Whats the encore in CY27? Margins: How will the component environment impact margins in the back half? Last quarter, Cook said changes are likely and it’s too early to determine the impact. The Street is modeling for gross margin to decline from 48.4% in March to 47.6% in June and 47.4% in September. I think they have that right. Ternus is the upside case: Can Ternus start to convince investors that he will bring new AI innovation, and when will we see those products? If successful, AAPL multiple will go up. AI: Any updates on the new S…

Overall the Apple numbers looked great. ➡️The stock is down 0.5% which is noise. ➡️The guide is what counts. I expect revenue guide higher than the 9% that the Street is looking for in June. ➡️Revenue growth was 17%, Street looking for 15%. ➡️Mac and iPad better. ➡️Services up 16% vs. Street at 14%. ➡️Gross margins 49.3% vs. 48.3%. Next quarter the Street is already factoring in higher memory costs at 47.6% and June is 47.4%. I don't expect the Street to make changes to those numbers.

We get the $AAPL guidance on the call. Likely at 5:15p ET.

Did the iPhone miss? Depends on what number you're looking at. They reported $56.99B, up 22% y/y vs 23%. Factset was at $56.66B Whisper was $57.5B My take: They made the iPhone number. $AAPL

Thoughts going into $AAPL earnings. Expectations: Expectations are modest given over the past one month, AAPL has underperformed the Mag 7 and Nasdaq. Past month performance: Nasdaq up 17%. GOOG: 34% AMZN: 28% NVDA: 19% META: 13% MSFT: 11% AAPL: 10% TSLA: 2% * Over the past three months, AAPL is up 4.5% vs. Nasdaq up 5%. March Quarter: ➡️The Street is expecting iPhone to be up 20.6% YoY. I expect 22% based on China. ➡️Services growth expectations of 14% should be in line. ➡️Gross margins should be in line with the Street at 48.4%. June Guide ➡️I expect guidance for June to call for 10–12% YoY growth. The Street is at 9%. I believe the dif…

The bottom line on the capex outlook, we’re early in the AI buildout. Three of the four hyperscalers hiked their AI spending outlook. I expect in CY26 will come in up closer to 80% vs. up Street expectations of up 64% going into tonight. $AMZN $GOOG $META $MSFT https://t.co/zUTGFU5I0D

Tonight was the latest evidence that we're still early in AI.

$META can’t shake the capex bears. Growth of 33% was better than the whisper of 32%. Guided June to 28% vs. Street at 25%. Investors opted instead to focus on capex growth this year going to 93% growth compared to previous expectations of 73%. I see the concern overblown. Meta has shown they can meaningfully accelerate revenue from capex. March of 25 it was up 16%. This June it will grow 28% plus.

$GOOG Investors shrugged off the higher capex guide for 2027 because Google Cloud is gaining meaningful marketshare, and Search is at an “expansionary moment” which means Search growth this year will be closer to 17% vs. the Street currently at 13%. https://t.co/gGXkyonQpj

$MSFT Postive comments about Azure growing at 40% in June vs 39% in March was offset by them talking about the elephant in the room, the need for a new monetization model for software that is usage based. https://t.co/7rGE0ICsT1

$AMZN Sounds like they’re keeping capex outlook unchanged. Up 48% yy in CY26 compared to up 59% in CY25. The kicker is outside of AWS, they still have not had their AI moment. https://t.co/PmP7C2YzOv

Both $MSFT and $AMZN stocks are now green. MSFT up 2% and AMZN up 4%. Both were down 2% when the calls started. Reason is positive comments about cloud growth in June, and they are supply constrained. Microsoft says Azure will growth will go from 39% in March to 40% in June. The Street was lookin for 37% in June. My take: Higher cloud growth in the face of difficult comps is another data point how early we are in AI. Basically all of this cloud growth is coming from AI training and inference.

$META CFO would not comment on capex for 2027, but said they believe compute is increasingly important. My take: This rhymes with Google's comment tonight that they expect capex next year to be up "considerably" The Street is expecting Meta capex to grow at 9% in 2027. I expect it will be up a similar rate as Google, around 20-30%.

$META CFO Susan Li says headcount reductions that they announced last week will help offset increased spending in AI infrastructure. My take: Latest data point that AI is having an impact on employment.

$META says its new Muse Spark model is improving user sessions by a "double digit" percentage. My take: AI is going to make it even more difficult for humanity to put down their screens.

Zuckerberg says AI will amp the ability for people to do what they want. Trying to smooth over the fact that Meta has been the most aggressive company at replacing humans with AI. My math is they've cut about 15% of headcount over the past year because of AI efficiency.

Zuckerberg kicks off the $META call explaining the deep in DAP growth. It was 7% last quarter and 4% in March. He says Iran and Russia regions were down. My take: Adding those back it likely grew 5.5% in March.

$GOOG stock shrugged off the capex comments for 2027, and now moving higher on comments that Search is in an "expansion" mode. Stock now up 7%, all time after hours high. My take: They have talked about this "expansion movement" over the past few conference calls, but the outlook has more credibility tonight as we have seen Search growth go from up around 11% a year ago to 19% in March.

$GOOG says "this is an expansionary moment for search. Search is more intelligent, Lens, Search Live, all expansion examples, at a scale that was not possible a few years ago, and factoring this in we are in a good place where this is going" My take: Analysts are going to be raising Search estimates tomorrow. Hard to say where they land. My guess is 18% growth this year.

Sundar says cloud revenue would have been higher if not for supply constrains. $GOOG It was 63% in March, vs up 48% in Dec-25. My take: I was expecting him to say this and it shows how early we still are in the AI buildout.