Gene Munster

$NVDA call just ended. Stock drifted down an additional 1% in the final minutes (now down 1.5%) as investors were hoping for some new nugget on growth. The $20B CPU nugget just wasn't enough.

Jensen says they will be supply constrained for the life of Vera Rubin. Shipments started this fall. My take: that’s a positive, because it opens the door that demand is actually better than what we see. $NVDA shares had little reaction to the comment.

Physical AI & $NVDA As in each of the past five quarters, Jensen reminds investors that physical AI will become a major driver in the next several years, but it has not yet started. My take: Investors are under appreciating the impact of physical AI. This year, FSD will account for about 0.3% of total passenger miles driven in the U.S., and autonomous ride-hailing will account for about 2% of rideshare. Cars are one part of physical AI.

Question from the call: Does the $20B in CPU guide (that’s Vera) this year cannibalize GPU revenue? Jensen says no, and the way to think about this is they’re building out a computing platform and don’t think about CPU vs GPU, just more compute. My take: Makes sense.

Jensen keeps talking about Anthropic. My take: Anthropic's business continues to be on fire, and for the first time meaningfully moving the growth needle for $NVDA

Jensen says "they should grow faster than hyperscaler capex" My take: This year, those hyperscalers are expecting to grow capex at around 80%. That means Jensen thinks they'll grow more like at 90% this year (CY26). The Street is at 72% growth for $NVDA this year.

Colette Kress only comment in prepared remarks on China is that they got approval and they're not expecting any revenue in July. * Best case is China could account for 10% of sales. * More likely case is it adds back 5%. * That said, investors will back it out given its risky revenue. My take: China doesn't matter.

CFO says they have sight to $20B of CPU revenue this year. That means it will be about 5% of revenue from basically zero last year. My take: The CPU story is nice but doesn't move the needle. $NVDA

Hyperscaler revenue was essentially half of Data Center $NVDA overall revenue. My math is that’s consistent with the Jan 26’ quarter. My take: GOOG, MSFT, META and AMZN capex guide is still the easiest way to get a sense of how things are going to Nvidia.

To get a better sense about the underlying $NVDA revenue growth, we need to adjusting for China revenue over the past two quarters. Here's what we find. Jan 26: 89% Apr 26: 109% Jul 26: 95% Guidance for July doesn't need an adjustment (there was no China revenue in July 25'). Take away: Keeping growth rates at similar rates despite the law of large numbers is a sign we're still early. These numbers are so good that it makes Apple's beating the law of large numbers in the sweet spot of the iPhone growth look JV.

Digging deeper into the $NVDA numbers: The comment "We have strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters." is the same verbiage they used last quarter. That says they are not, and not expecting to be supply or production constrained. In other words, the growth rates we see are the real growth rates.

AI trade is intact. $NVDA numbers and guide are solid. Stock is up 1%. Reason stock is flat/down is had to be a massive higher guide for July, and the guide higher was 4% higher than the Street. The key is growth for the July quarter will be 95% plus, vs. Street that was at 87%. No revenue from China expected in July, that's good news for the broader AI trade.

Getting ready for $NVDA. ➡️ Numbers will be great. ➡️Outlook will be better. ➡️ Thats likely priced into shares because fears about slowdown next year will remain. ➡️More importantly, if they keep CY26 revenue at 72% (Street) or better, the AI trade is intact. ➡️In March at GTC, Jensen gave the $1T cumulative revenue by end of CY27, which implies 40% plus growth for CY27. The Street is at 34%. I expect the Street to land around 40% growth following earnings tonight. ➡️China doesn’t matter. If it turns back on, investors will likely back it out because they fear it will go away again. More to come.

The memory trade has been one of the hottest in tech — $DRAM up ~50% over the past month, $SOXX up 29%, and Nasdaq up ~10%. But there's a pocket of AI exposure that hasn't been fully rewarded yet: energy. $ENRGR, $CCJ, and $VST — all $LOUP holdings — are down 9% over that same stretch. These aren't oil stocks. They're the power infrastructure behind AI: Siemens Energy: turbines and power transformers, Cameco: one of the world's largest nuclear uranium producers, and Vistra: independent power plants built for the hyperscalers. We think the market hasn't fully priced this in yet. To view LOUP's current holdings, visit: https://t.co/rUbLi7…

Get ready for some IPO magic. June 11 is the rumored date for the @SpaceX IPO. This is the most IPO fun since May 18, 2012, when Facebook went public with a $104B valuation. That’s fitting given $META’s market cap of $1.6T today will be similar to SpaceX next month, give or take a few hundred billion.

Shares of $NVDA will finish the week up ~15%, compared to the Nasdaq up ~10%, given newfound confidence in the China opportunity. I've come to the conclusion that China doesn't matter because it's unpredictable and Nvidia is doing just fine without it. https://t.co/WeGQKg1RcT

T-minus 7 days until $NVDA reports. The numbers are going ~10% higher. I'm expecting shares to have a muted response because investors will likely still be worried about next year. https://t.co/UCpFqfOh6S

The odds that the Redwood Energy business takes off just increased.

Fun to join the FM crew and start the countdown to NVDA earnings (May 20)

T-minus 10 trading days until $NVDA reports (May 20). For shares to move higher, Jensen needs to make investors comfortable with 2027 growth.

Prediction: When people start getting cowork and codex rockin on their laptops, these gonna a run to upgrade laptops. Good for Macs I’m FY27. Street is looking for 7% growth. Question is how they’ll handle the increased component costs. They buy a year old. I bet prices go up. $AAPL

AI impact on jobs update: ADP Private payrolls rose by 109k in April vs expectations of 84k and 61k in March. While this may suggest AI is not impacting jobs, a closer look shows job growth coming from areas where the human touch matters, education and health (added 61k), trade and transportation (added 25k) and construction (added 10k). Those knowledge workers (including myself) are still at a fork in the road: embrace the tools or risk being replaced.

Last night Anthropic announced a multi year $200B commitment to $GOOG Cloud. The debate about can Anthropic make good on the deal misses the point. The big picture is this announcement underscores how early we are in AI, with the need for compute taking off on the heels of last Novembers step function improvement in many of the models utility. That’s good news for the entire AI model and infrastructure stack.

America needs more power!

$META getting more into physical AI (aside from smart glasses). They just acquired Assured Robot Intelligence to build humanoid robots. No terms given. My guess is they paid sub $5B. Big Tech (TSLA, GOOG, AMZN) appears all-in on robotics,and they'll be purchasing gear from smaller companies to build that future. My Innovator Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF ($LOUP) has a focus on smaller, high-conviction companies enabling the AI and robotics transformation. To view LOUP’s holdings: https://t.co/rUbLi7tWrh

The reason why shares of $AAPL are not up more is investors wonder if the new Siri can power an encore to iPhone super cycle that wraps up this quarter. I believe the answer is yes. https://t.co/RtNd9JBDIl

The key is less about the March results and June guide, and more about Ternus’ ability to pull AI rabbits out of his hat.

Cooks says if they get a tariff refund, which I estimate would be close to $5B, they would reinvest it into the US.

More on the constraints. Cook says the availability of advanced modes in System on Chips (SoCs), not memory. The majority is on the Mac mini, Mac Studio and Mac Neo. Those products collectively account for about 3% of revenue. The bottom line is if not for the supply on the Mac, the guide would have been higher, by likely 1% or at most 2%. It's small and a positive. $AAPL

Question comes up on why the iPhone 17 has been so strong. Cook calls it "amazing" across the world. Cooks says they set a new record for upgraders, which underscores some of what we are seeing in these strong numbers is the benefit of that 39% iPhone growth spike in FY21.