Gene Munster

A little more on the $AAPL price increases and the stock continuing to be down 5% today: It's all about expectations: last week when the story came out in the Journal about the upcoming price increases, most investors interpreted as a weighted average price increase of 5-10%, when in reality the Mac news points to a 15-20% bump. My take: this is a borderline jarring price increase when you compare it to expectations and it's understandable that investors have concerns. But in the end, the net effect should accelerate revenue growth over the next 4 quarters and expand gross margins.

The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame.

CFO of $MU says they will be supply constrained in FY28, and he doesn't have line of sight to when they will be in equilibrium. My take: This is a significant positive for the AI trade, and evidence that the demand could outpace supply into late CY28 or even CY29. Hard to believe. Stock now up 12% in after hours based on that supply comment, and likely going higher.

$MU results and guide show we are still early in the AI buildout. They hit the high end of the revenue whisper, up 364% yy, compared to Street at 286%. Margins were the big surprise. 85% vs. Street at 81%. Guided Aug revenue growth 342% vs. Street 285%.

The Three Most Important Things to Listen For Tonight on $MU call: 1. Do they still expect supply-demand tightness beyond 2026? 2. Are customers still only getting 50%-67% of requested supply? 3. Have SCAs expanded beyond the first signed 5-year agreement?

$INTC move today (up 10%) was more love than substance. I expect Apple to add at best a couple of billion in revenue to Intel starting in 2028. That’s adds about 4% to the business if it landed today. Likely 2% in 2028.

Consumer won’t blink at the upcoming $AAPL price increases. If they raise prices of iPhones by 10% this fall (market expectations), that translates to a $1.60 monthly increase in average iPhone cost of ownership. I expect an average of a 5% increase.

The biggest takeaway from Cook’s comments on pricing and Gurman’s comments on the staggered iPhone release is that there is upside to FY27 gross margins. https://t.co/Ba1i3rUqxJ

The geopolitical and SPCX Be prepared for the possibility macro geopolitical factors Fridays SPCX trading. That’s the headwind we saw today. Long-term, @SpaceX has the potential to be a geopolitical player on par with a nation state.

The @SpaceX IPO is arguably the most exciting event in tech history. While everything the company has built rests on decades of tech progress, which I don’t want to diminish, its unique assets and sovereign AI mission position it to become one of the fastest growing and most defensible companies of the next decade.

The 5% slide of AAPL shares was one part sell-the-news and four parts uncertainty about when every iPhone user, whether in the U.S., Europe, or China, will get their hands on the new Siri AI. https://t.co/GekG3CPOyx

Apple showed plans for a new Siri AI that consumers will love. They failed to answer the key question: Do they have the AI chops to deliver? My guess is that we’ll see Siri AI in mid-CY27, versus previous expectations for the fall of this year. $AAPL https://t.co/unnsl4rggi

Bottom line on WWDC: The question remains, can Apple actually deliver a compelling personalized AI?

I just gave @tim_cook a Standing O as he closed out his last Apple event. Forget today’s noise about Siri AI timing. For 15 years, Cook has crushed it for investors and consumers alike. WGCEO (Worlds Greatest CEO)

$AAPL down ~4%. Craig says Siri AI in beta later this year, which explains the sell off. Investors wanted it in September. That means the real version is likely early to mid 2027. Funny that the stock actually ticked up 0.5% on the "beta later this year" update given while it's later than what they wanted, it is at least a date that investors can focus on.

Craig shifts conversation to AI . New Apple Foundation models with Google. Build small models that run on server and on device. Craig this will give better: 1l Image underrating and generation. dictation, speech. 2. Personal context understanding that will help you find what you're looking for faster (uses the new Search). 3. Apple Intelligence can go out to the web and tie it back to on device for more personal context. My take: Nice and to be expected. These would not be game changers. Need to see the new Siri which starts now. .

Tim Kicks off WWDC. Says we will hear about Apple Intelligence and Siri today. My take: Nothing new and as expected. $AAPL

My final thoughts going into WWDC: Apple needs to show a Siri that consumers can't wait to get their hands on. If they deliver that, AAPL will slowly move higher through the summer in anticipation of a fall launch. Here's my preview: https://t.co/nwbDBEeduX

WWDC is on Monday and should mark the start of a rerating for the stock AAPL: https://t.co/nwbDBEeduX

T-minus one week until shares of $SPCX start trading. I see today’s market slide (Nasdaq down ~3%) as a healthy sign. The biggest risk to the IPO is overly optimistic investors going into the first trade. Even if the market slides for the next few days, the window is still open, the optimism around the company should be more than enough to power through a soft market leading up to Friday.

When discussing how @SpaceX will trade in the month after its IPO, the $1.77T valuation is less important. The bigger number is the $75B primary raise (potentially $86B with overallotment), which should fuel an IPO pop given the very limited float. Longer term, there should be little debate. SpaceX should be a core tech holding. Like him or not, Elon is a generational founder, and the company’s position as the leader in sovereign AI stands alone when it comes to durable long term growth potential.

$TSLA moved 1% higher on news vs Nasdaq up 0.4%. Moving to fully unsupervised in Austin is a meaningful step forward given they would not do it unless they had the highest confidence in Robotaxi safety. Recall Elon used the word "paranoid" 7 times over the past three earnings call when the topic of safety came up.

The most accurate LLM in the @iafunds earnings benchmark didn't make the most money in a simple trading test. One of the least accurate one did. Conviction and slugging matter.

If you missed Google I/O this week because it got buried under NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX S-1, and OpenAI verdict, you’re not alone. All you need to know is $GOOG Search is continuing to evolve. They’ll be adding agents into basic search, that means in the future Search will working for you even when you’re not searching. Second, custom silicon is lower costs and increasing Cloud market share. https://t.co/Qc2IQk1tsO

If you missed Google I/O this week because it got buried under NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX S-1, and OpenAI verdict, you’re not alone. All you need to know is $GOOG Search is continuing to evolve. They’ll be adding agents into basic search, that means in the future Search will working for you even when you’re not searching. Second, custom silicon is lower costs and increasing Cloud market share. https://t.co/Qc2IQk1tsO

T-minus one hour with @dougclinton https://t.co/s3xj4K7s5O

I have a bad habit of trying to guess what a stock will do the day after earnings. It's a bad habit because post-earnings trading has so much noise, it tells us almost nothing about the actual fundamentals. Now that the disclaimers are out of the way: I expect $NVDA to be up 1-2% today. It’s currently down 0.4% in the premarket (8:15a ET).

$NVDA keeps crushing high expectations. It was a $27B business in CY22. This year it will be more than $400B. Investors are more worried that the growth will slow next year. https://t.co/zPjXuwAJu0

@SpaceX S-1 sucked the air out of the $NVDA quarter. Yes, $NVDA crushed earnings. But $SPCX's positioning as a sovereign AI company is a more compelling long-term (10-year) growth story. P.S: Those companies combined will account for $7T in market cap.

@SpaceX S-1 Key Takeaway: They're positioning themselves as a vertically integrated AI company. My take: I agree and think of it as sovereign AI. The only company that has a chance to compete is Google, who's a light-year behind.