Gene Munster

Tomorrow after the close, we find out about the Musk pay package. I think it will pass because shareholders win along with Elon. If I’m wrong and it gets voted down, $TSLA shareholders will slowly lose out. https://t.co/Pgp0wgbqBA

$NVDA's been on an investment and partnership tear. The pace underscores both Jensen’s conviction in the future of work along with the urgency that first-movers will deliver outsized returns. https://t.co/qjKdTYPydJ

Even though $NVDA reports in three weeks, they still take home the biggest winner prize from big tech earnings week.

Thinking more about the next six months, there's a lot riding on Siri. $AAPL https://t.co/V0BNlLMBNx

Below the headlines, the $AMZN investment story is about automation & AWS improving margins. https://t.co/GHmABlBavz

All signs point to a strong finish to the year for $AAPL. https://t.co/0lzONj7emY

Hope around the new Siri springs eternal. Look for $AAPL’s multiple to expand in anticipation of the rollout next year.

$APPL expects small increases in Capex for AI and the private cloud, but the hybrid model of first and third party capacity will continue to be their approach going forward. My take: Capex in 2025 will be about $12B, about $14B in 2026. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta will all be over $100B next year.

Cook reminds investors that they are open to M&A. My take: For as long as I can remember, that's been more or less his response to the M&A question. $AAPL

Cook says it’s too early to tell if there is a mix shift between Pro and Max because they had constraints on availability. $AAPL My take: Mix doesn't matter much. Yes, Max slightly higher margins but whats important is total iPhone revenue.

$AMZN Robotics, 1m robots in the fulfillment network, will increase investments, very important area of investment. Worth noting underneath the topic of AI automation is the reality that people are losing their jobs. Jassy said on the call that people will remain at the heart, expect over time that humans and robots compliment each other. My take: Unfortunately, there won't be much compliment long term, mostly replacement.

More good news for $NVDA. $AMZN Capex of guide was $125B in 2025, Street was looking for $118B, 6% increase.

Cook gives some commentary on the iPhone miss in September and the strong guide in December. They were supply constrained. Follow up question was around will the constraints continue? Today they are constrained on several 17 models, Cook is not predicting when they will be in balance. History would suggest they reach balance by the end of December. In other words, we will likely not see revenue getting pushed from December into March. $AAPL

$AAPL hits record number of active devices. We did not get a number. My take: Good news and as expected.

$AMZN says backlog greater than all of Q3 Rev (has to be AWS revenue) moved the stock up another 1% in after hours.

Cook says making good progress on new Siri and says will release “next year”. The expectation is end of March. They have to get it out by WWDC early in June. My guess is it's released on the day they report the March quarter, which will be late in April. $AAPL

AWS - largest growth rate in 11 quarters. $AWZN

To put the iPhone results and guide into perspective: Heading into the report, the whisper number called for 10% iPhone growth in September. If Apple had met that whisper number and guided in line with Street expectations for December, total iPhone revenue over the two quarters would have been $124B. Factoring in the 6% growth they reported in September and the guided “double-digit” growth for December, let’s call it 12%, suggests total iPhone revenue over the two quarters will be $126B. In other words, iPhone revenue over a two-quarter period is coming in about 2% above already high expectations. $AAPL

$AAPL is going higher (currently down 2%) The iPhone miss for September doesn't matter because the December guide was stronger than expected and more than made up the miss. September iPhone grew 6% yy, vs. Whisper of 10%. December guided to "double digit growth" which is above the in print and whisper in December of up 6%.

Return on AI at $AMZN. Check out how automation is improving operating margins. If they hit the high end of guidance for December (which they likely will), operating margin will be 12.2%. That compares to: Dec-25: 12.2% Est Dec-24: 11.3% Dec-23: 7.8% Dec-22: 1.8% Dec-21: 2.5% Dec-20: 5.5% Dec-19: 4.4%

$AMZN guided December revenue up by 3% and operating income up by 9%. Throw out the ranges they give on guidance. Focus on the high end because they typically come in at or above the high end. My 3% and 9% guide up is based on them hitting the high end of the ranges. That pop in operating income guide is likely being driven by AI in reduced headcount and more robotics.

While September results are good news on AWS, the big picture around competition remains a challenge. Google Cloud and Azure are growing at almost 2x faster than AWS, which means they continue to lose share. $AMZN

$AMZN reports 20% AWS growth vs. Whisper of 18.5%. Stock up 9%. To put into perspective how focused investors are on AWS, they beat overall revenue by 1.2%, and the stock is up 9%.

$AMZN is straight forward tonight. It's of course about AWS. Whisper is 18.5% growth.

$AAPL and AI for tonight: Bottom Line: Investors will soon start to warm up to what Apple will deliver next year. 1. Tonight investors aren't expecting to hear much, only that they reiterate that the new Siri comes out early next year. 2. I expect Apple's AI investment cadence will be consistent with the past, fractional compared to $META, $GOOG, $MSFT and $AMZN. They're investing around $12-$15B a year, compared to the others at more than $60B. 3. The reason why I expect investors to start to warm up on no new material updates is that we're getting close to the launch of the new Siri, now likely only 5 months away. This means we're enteri…

$AAPL tonight is all about the December iPhone guide that we’ll get on the call. Bottom line: I expect it to be favorable. For September, the iPhone whisper number is 10% growth, vs. Street in print at 9%. iPhone-related news has continued to be positive, even though analysts have not materially adjusted the consensus. For the December quarter, Street expectations call for 6% growth, in line with buy-side expectations. I expect iPhone commentary on the earnings call for December will indicate growth above 6%, closer to 8%.

Now that Meta has reset the expense bar, we have to wait until the December report to see if it starts paying off.

$MSFT was the least eventful of the three reporting tonight. December revenue guidance was in line with the Street, a slight disappointment, but the big picture remains intact. https://t.co/hLqGL4ges9

$META shares are down on a flipped script — expenses are now growing faster than revenue. That said, it’s the right decision to position the company to capitalize on AI’s potential. https://t.co/rAaPjMR8El

Bravo to $GOOG for accelerating Search in the face of chatbots. Sounds like the momentum will continue. P.S. My prediction: Waymo IPO in 2027. https://t.co/nBEv6vfP2P