Gene Munster

AI investors are worn out from all the good news: https://t.co/asuv0JGaE6

Good news for $AAPL investors: Apple has a new head of AI. Shares are flat on the announcement, but the stock was up 1.5% earlier today on “no news” vs. the Nasdaq down 0.4%. My three takeaways: https://t.co/wfMfVsALaO

Three takeaways from the news that $AAPL’s head of AI, John Giannandrea, is going to “retire” in the spring of 2026. Stock up a fraction in after hours on the news. 1. The new Siri is likely on track for a spring release. While there was no mention in the press release about timing of the new Siri, his spring departure lines up with the rumored timing. 2. He most likely was asked to retire. He’s 60 years old which means in Apple years, he still has 5 good years left. Shows Cook is serious about having substance behind their AI features. 3. They want more from AI. The new head of Apple AI, Amar Subramanya most recently was a VP of AI at Mic…

What's most important in AI this week? Taking a step back; I remember when I was covering $AMZN on the sell side the Cyber Five (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) used to be a focus for investors. Now it’s a sideshow. What matters this week is the keynote from Matt Garman, CEO of AWS, at 11 am ET Tuesday from the AWS re:Invent stage in Vegas. I'll be watching and listening for any updates from what they said back on Oct 30th around plans double AWS capacity by 2027 and any nuggets on demand.

’Tis the prediction season. I’ve got: $AAPL as the top Mag 7 performer for the next six months. $GOOG for the next year. Below is more on GOOG. https://t.co/RKECDnIQ8q

I agree with @DivesTech, Nvidia is the champ. My prediction: AI infrastructure will be a bright spot for investing in 2026. Deepwater owns $NVDA.

This won’t be a wearables holiday, at least not for Meta Display. We tested Meta AI on Meta’s Display glasses against ChatGPT’s video conversation tool on an iPhone. It wasn’t even close. https://t.co/hVa6bMlRmX

While the market is sour on $NVDA in the near-term, the potential of restarting the China business would be sweet. https://t.co/qCnf3rjwwR

Breaking $NVDA news: Trump is considering restarting H20 sales in China (Bloomberg). What it could mean for numbers: Back in August, Jensen said China H20 could be a $50B revenue opportunity this year if fully sold in, with 50% annual growth. The Street is currently modeling $317B in CY26 revenue, up 49% without China. If China comes back for the full CY26, total revenue would be about $367B, up 73% year over year.

Well said @ahmurphy at the pace of tech. 🚀

I remember when the iPhone sold 270k units in the first weekend, missing the 350k whisper, and a buy-side investor called to notify me that it was “dead on arrival.” We’re still early in AI.

While the market is worried about AI, the news flow suggests we’re still early. Here are five things that happened this week that support that view. https://t.co/ANcyfKvQD8

Looks like we’re in for another ugly day for $NVDA, with the stock down 2.5% in the premarket. Maybe I’m not getting the joke, but my fallback is to focus on fundamentals, which suggests we’re still early in the AI buildout. More on my take: https://t.co/JbacAdKhl2

612 dinner with Dan and Doug.

The $NVDA call just wrapped. Stock is up 4%. I think it will be up 5-10% over the next week. The takeaways: 1. Jensen was over the top near and long term bullish. 2. Guided Jan to 65% revenue growth up from 62% in July. 3. Suggest revenue next year should be up at least 54%, above the Street at 41%. 4. Margins next year will maintain current levels, which is a win.

Jensen says $NVDA has the balance sheet to support their partners, and all the investments are about expanding the reach of the CUDA ecosystem. My take: Sounds like the partnership announcements are going to keep coming.

Jensen says hundreds of billions in capex spending will quickly profitable. My take: Thats been a key question and Jensen view is predictable.

Jensen takes the mic. Reiterates his view that there are three transformations underway that $NVDA will take advantage of: 1. CPU → GPU: accelerating computing. 2. AI transforming existing apps and enabling new ones. 3. Agentic AI.

The question was about concerns over overbuilding and overspending on AI infrastructure. Jensen says: don’t overthink it. AI applications are the fastest-growing in the world, and the number of companies building on them continues to rise. That means the need for pre-training, post-training, and inference is still in the early stages. $NVDA

CFO says "on track for $500B forecast for Blackwell and Rubin and that number "will grow" If they hit the $500B, that implies revenue up 54% compared to Street now at 41% My take: She suggested there is upside to the 54%.

Favorable margin outlook for 2027 - They're looking to hold gross margins in the mid 70%. Thats a win given the growing costs. $NVDA

Outlook: Not assuming any revenue from China. $NVDA

Automotive revenue up 32% yy. My take: It's still growing slower than overall revenue (up 62%). In a few years, that will change as physical AI kicks in.

Topic of physical AI came up. CFO reiterates it's the “next leg” of growth. My take: This is one reason how $NVDA can grow faster for longer. Wall Street is focused on how long the generative AI buildout will last, but the physical AI buildout will be another wave that kicks in over the next few years.

Sounds like the OpenAI relationship is in a good place, with the option open to invest in the company. My take: We knew this.

CFO says Mag 7 is increasingly using $NVDA networking solutions. I estimate Mag 7 account for over 50% of GPU demand, which underscore they have deep pockets to buy networking gear.

$NVDA stock moving higher on CFO hitting the message that next year is going to be a great year with a combination of positive comments.

CFO says three scaling laws remain intact. My take: This is more than a check the box comment. There is a debate if these laws are holding up. $NVDA

On the call: CFO reiterates they have visibility for $500B in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of next year. This is the same comment Jensen made on Oct 28. It implies 54% y/y growth in CY26, compared to the Street at 41%. $NVDA

What $NVDA earnings and guide tell us about the state of AI: ➡️AI’s collective “brain” (GPUs in use) is going to be bigger than we thought three months ago. ➡️The bigger the AI brain gets, the more use cases appear. ➡️The more use cases that appear, the stronger the AI investment cycle becomes. ➡️The stronger the investment cycle, the longer the AI trade marches on.