Gene Munster

More on Turnus's opportunity: https://t.co/r2aFrjDjHD

More good news for $AAPL. Stock up 2.4% vs. Nasdaq up 1.3%. IDC says China iPhone sales up 33% y/y in the March quarter. Counterpoint says China iPhone up 20% in March. Street is looking for March iPhone up around 15%. My take: I believe up 20% is currently priced in to the March quarter results.

Good news for $AAPL March quarter: China iPhone likely up 20% y/y vs expectations of up 15%. This is based on today’s Counterpoint data that I believe is directionally accurate. They report while total smartphone shipments in China declined (4%), Apple's went up 20%. My take: this is based on iPhone 17 lineup having long legs. Longer than typical.

$TSLA up 7.4% today, marking its best daily performance in 9 months. I attribute 20% of today’s move to the market (Nasdaq up 1.4%), along with a UBS upgrade earlier today. I believe 80% of the move is related to Elon’s nocturnal post on X announcing the tape out for Hardware 5 is complete. That’s an important update given in the world where cars are computers on wheels, a 5x improvement in chip performance helps unlock FSD and Robotaxi. As a point of reference, AI4 started to ramp in 2023, and my best guess is AI5 comes out in the middle of next year. Elon has not commented on timing.

Most AI benchmarks test retrieval or reasoning puzzles, tasks with fixed answers that the next model release just clears. Markets are different. The answer key keeps changing. That makes them the truest test of whether these models are actually getting more intelligent in a way that matters. Worth following the Intelligent Earnings Benchmark from @iafunds!

Redwood Energy is gaining momentum. What stands out is they’ll have this up and running by end of the year. Speed = Winning

$AMZN adds satellite internet through its acquisition of Globalstar. Underscores @SpaceX is onto something.

$NVDA's partnership approach is about investing in companies, not acquiring them.

More on our thesis that @SpaceX is building the world’s only sovereign AI. In this clip, Doug and I discuss whether Elon is the right person to build a maximally truth seeking AI. https://t.co/gNuQMgcQSK

Tesla is an important part of our thesis on SpaceX building sovereign AI. To monetize physical AI on Earth, @SpaceX needs $TSLA. To secure sovereign AI models and infrastructure, Tesla needs SpaceX. A formal merger between the two will face significant structural and regulatory hurdles. We think these will ultimately be overcome because combining the companies is in the best interest of the shareholders.

For a deep dive on our @SpaceX Is Building the World’s First Sovereign AI thesis, check out @dougclinton and I on Pressure Points:

Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be appealing. My strong conviction, at least for Amazon, is that the answers are no, no, and yes.” My take: We're in AI’s 2nd inning, and the next five years will see explosive growth in tech companies. That's one area of focus for the Innovator Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF ( $LOUP ), which is investing in smaller (less than $500B in market cap) companies enabling the AI transformation. To view LOUP's current holdings…

SpaceX, across Musk’s constellation of assets, has a plausible path to owning every single layer. Chips. Models. Data. Internet delivery. And the rockets to put it all wherever physics allows. No other company has that opportunity. https://t.co/W4WPXCFNsz

Reuters reports $TSLA is in early development for a new entry-level vehicle, roughly 5% smaller than the Cybercab. It reportedly has NOT received a green light yet, and no timing was given. My first reaction was click bait. My take: We’ve seen two hints about new models this month: today’s Reuters story and Elon’s March 25th comment that “something way cooler than a minivan is coming.” What is more clear is Tesla is working on new vehicles. My guess, we see an announcement in 2027 pointing toward a 2028 release.

JB is now riding the AI wave.

We think @SpaceX is building the world’s only sovereign AI, supreme, independent control of an AI platform. The model. The chips. The data center. The pipes that deliver the intelligence to the end user. No third-party cloud. No rented silicon. No borrowed infrastructure.

For the narrative on $MSFT to change, they have to make better AI products.

$TSLA is down because they slightly missed March delivery expectations.That doesn't change the takeaway. March deliveries were the first solid read on underlying demand; they grew without the help of tax credits, and growth going forward should quicken. Over the past two years, the top five carmakers have reduced EV investments by an average of 35%. I expect those reductions to be costly long-term. Below is a deep dive.

Shares of $TSLA are down 4.5% in premarket. The rest of big tech down about 2.5%. I think the move in TSLA is an over reaction. March production was up 12% y/y, which was an easy comp, and still a positive given it’s a read they think deliveries will continue to grow in June.

$TSLA deliveries of 358K were up about 7% year every year. More or less in line with the whisper and a win for the company given it’s the first quarter where we get a true read on underline demand post last years September tax credit sunset. The bottom line is Tesla deliveries are growing without the help of subsidies.

It's been fun to see bits of Apple history today. Here's my contribution from the archives. In November of 2004 we raised our price target on $AAPL to $100 and never looked back. #Apple50 https://t.co/Fu3fQPGr4q

Happy Birthday $AAPL. After 50 years of thinking different, I believe that Apple’s most profound feature is still in the making: personalized AI. Apple + AI remains appears to be one of the most underappreciated opportunities in tech. Glad to be an investor with further anticipated upside ahead. Separately, I expect companies powering Apple, like $MRVL (a LOUP holding), to be major beneficiaries of this next wave. To view the Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF's (LOUP) current holdings, visit: https://t.co/rUbLi7toBJ.

$AAPL's greatest product wasn't the iPhone. It was the culture Jobs built to outlast him. 50 years in, that edge is as sharp as ever. Thank you, Steve. #Apple50 https://t.co/mb5vJTZqm5 https://t.co/VlrPrdXVE7

Beyond the headline of next week’s $TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don’t have BYD. https://t.co/CBuYLEN6Hf

Melania Trump walking the red carpet with Figure 03 was the third step forward for bots this week. We also saw $UBER commit $1.25B to robotaxis and Google DeepMind sign its third robotics hardware partnership in six months. Bottom line: We believe investors shouldn't focus too much on the timing. They’re coming, and they will profoundly impact humanity, similar to the phone and the automobile. This is the kind of frontier tech we aim to invest in for the Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF (LOUP) ETF: https://t.co/rUbLi7toBJ.

$TSLA deliveries out next Thursday. The key metric is Model Y/3, which I believe will be flat y/y (324k). The Street is looking for 351k, up 8%. It's the first read on true demand after last September’s EV tax credit sunset. Ignore S/X because they’re going away. https://t.co/txnjlyFTZq

Two things investors should keep in mind as Apple works to do something unique in AI: 1️⃣ The scope of their AI ambitions is bigger than last year’s WWDC comments. It's now expected to include conversational AI and using Siri as a UI to access third-party models. The substance remains unchanged, about using Siri to power personal AI. 2️⃣ WWDC won't be a "flip the switch" moment for Siri. The first leap forward likely starts with the new iOS in September, with a phased rollout over the next six months. In other words, we’re about a year away from having access to the new Siri in its entirety. My take: This will be worth the wait.

SpaceX IPO roadmap Timing: Early Summer Bottom line: Long-term, this is a generational company, and if you have the luxury, one to own for the next decade. The first month will be a gong show between index buying, meme optimism, and lock-up fears. Expect a massive spike out of the gate before a pullback to ~$1.7T. Worth noting: Current SpaceX shareholders (Deepwater included) likely won’t benefit from early index buying due to the 180-day lock-up. It just provides liquidity 6 months down the road.

I agree with Zuck on the agents. This summer, Deepwater’s interns won’t be learning about tech investing. They’ll be building personal AI agents instead. https://t.co/zKCWor8ii9

Buckle up. The first wave of physical AI mass adoption will be self-driving cars. The evidence: Tesla’s FSD is making major gains, and Waymo is going from 6 cities at the end of 2025 to likely 25 by the end of 2026 https://t.co/jmSaLV5zCH