Gene Munster

$GOOG says agentic commerce is long term growth driver. Has not started. The process of commerce will have "new standards from discovery to buying" My take: More shots for Google to make money.

$AMZN revenue up 15% in March vs. 12% in December. AWS up 28% missed the whisper of 30%. Thats ok because the real number was likely much better. Have to wait for the call to hear more. My take: Like Microsoft, Amazon needs to make a statement with investors that they have AI products consumers must have. It needs to be more than AWS growth to get the AMZN multiple to rerate.

$GOOG says there is "upside" to ad coverage in AI Overviews and AI Mode. My take: Search in growth will be higher for longer. Street is looking for 15% growth this year. Likely closer to 18%.

$GOOG CFO says capex in 2027 will increase "substantially" over 2026. Street is expecting up 10%. My take: I bet it's up 20-30% next year.

Three of the four mega cap tech down after hours. We will hear from MSFT, AMZN and META at 5:30p ET. $GOOG up 6% $MSFT down 2% $AMZN down 2% $META down 6% (capex guide).

$GOOG Waymo, now over 500k rides a week, more than doubling year over year. Growth has been consistently doubling off of higher numbers. I estimate $TSLA Robotaxi around 50k rides per week, and still in a great position to catch Waymo over the next few years. The crazy part is that self driving ride sharing is still only 1.5% of total ride sharing miles.

$MSFT is in a tight spot because they can't shake the negative narrative. Stock is down 1% on solid numbers. The past month, MSFT is up 17%, inline with the Nasdaq. My take: They need to make a statement on the call tonight and make it easy for investors to believe they have AI powered products (beyond Azure) that customers must have. Copilot has been a miss.

$GOOG call kicks off. Sundar says AI is causing users to come back more. We saw that in March Search growth, up 19% vs. Street looking for up 16%. That 19% in March was an acceleration from 17% in December. My take: This is the fourth consecutive quarter where search has comfortably beat expectations. It looks like they're out of the woods when it comes to the chatbot risk.

$META is down 6% because of the capex guide. Deja vu: We saw this when they reported Sep-25. Capex is expected to grow this year by 94%, vs. the Street was expecting 76%. My take: I continue to be surprised by investors negative capex reaction. We have enough datapoints from Meta that show these investments are paying off. Revenue in March grew at 33% yy, and they guided to 28% in June. That compares to March of 2025 up 16%.

$META Daily Active People was 3.56B, up 4%. hats a step down from 6.9% in Dec, vs. 7.6% in September and 6.4% in June and 5.9% in March, 5.0% in Dec 24 and 4.8% in Sep 24. My take: it’s good but not great. Would have liked to have seen more of a step up given Meta AI search on Instagram and FB should be juicing user engagement.

$META grew revenue up 33% vs. 31%. For the June quarter, they effectively guided to $61B in revenue, up 28% vs. the just reported 33%. My take: Still impressive growth off of hard comps.

We already know the key takeaway from tonights Mega Cap earnings. We're still early in AI. * Google Cloud up 63% yy vs. whisper at up 50%. * Azure growth of 40% vs. whisper of 39%. * AWS up 28% vs. whisper of 30%. * Meta raised capex growth this year to 94% y/y. Previously the Street had expected 76%. In 2025, capex grew at 87%. Keep in mind, the reported cloud numbers likely understate demand because they were all supply constrained. Have to wait for the call for details on how much supply impacted Google Cloud growth. $GOOG, $MSFT, $META, $AMZN

This is my 123rd tech earnings season. Tonight is the biggest of them all. The capex conversation will be heavily weighted on memory price increases, which means we should see the CY26 average growth inch up tonight from 64% to just below 70%. The real question is what does CY27 look like? Unfortunately, we will not get much on that topic tonight beyond they're committed to continuing to build out capex for several years. My take: The AI brain, measured by capex, is still small today relative to what it will be in the next 5 years.

OpenAI growth headlines are likely true, but taken out of context. Bottom line, OpenAI path to trillion dollar plus public company still on track.

Fun to join @calebsilver to talk the potential of an $AAPL narrative change.

$INTC results go beyond Intel and remind us how early we are in the AI buildout.

The recurring message from the $INTC management team on the call: more new customers are coming. They just won't be announcing them today. Stock has risen an additional 4% on the call. Now up 19%.

$INTC stock is up 15% on earnings. If there is ever a question regrading how early we are in AI, look at what it the rising AI tide is doing to Intel, which was arguably on the ropes. Revenue in: * Dec-25 was down 4%. * Mar-26 it was up 7%. * Jun-26: If they exceed the high end of their guide by the same margin they just did in March, revenue growth will be 24%. The Street was looking for full year 2026 to be up 3%.

I expect shares of $TSLA to be higher in a week (all geo political events aside). https://t.co/S8Io7e467T

$TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision: https://t.co/OoDvo6QvVO

$TSLA is best positioned to capitalize on physical AI.

Question on the call related to future $TSLA vehicles. Elon says most of production in the future will be Cybercab because 90% of miles are with two or fewer people in the car. He mentions the new Roadster is coming next month and that it won’t move the needle. My take: This puts cold water on my hopes for a minivan killer anytime soon.

CFO says capex this year will be more than $25B. Last quarter he said more than $20B. That means that capex per quarter for the rest of the year (estimating it comes in at $30B) will average $9B per quarter. For March it was $2.5B.

What about $TSLA deliveries for this year? The comment in the shareholder deck on delivery outlook was not helpful. I'm not expecting much from the call. Here's what the outlook on volume reads: "We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories. Deliveries and deployments will be impacted by aggregate demand for our products, supply chain readiness and allocation decisions between sale to customers or use for our owned and operated fleet".

FSD subs grew 16% q/q (reported). FSD miles driven grew 93% q/q (looking at the chart in the deck). My take: Hard to believe. Looking for confirmation on the call that FSD miles driven grew that much quarter over quarter. If true, that shows existing subs are using FSD a lot more. $TSLA

Paid Robotaxi miles basically doubled from December to March. $TSLA Looking at the chart in the deck: Sep 25: ~125k Dec 25: ~525k Mar 26: ~1.1m

The only change in the $TSLA outlook section compared to last quarter was the language: "Capacity build out and ramp related to our multi-year infrastructure initiatives, including AI compute, solar, battery material and semiconductor manufacturing are underway". My take: more infrastructure is a competitive advantage. I wonder if Terafab is part of that.

$TSLA up 4% in part on automotive gross margin excluding credits (non-GAAP) were 19.2%, vs. 17.5% expectation.

Shares of $AAPL flat in the premarket. Sign that investors feel good about the June guide and more importantly that Ternus is the right guy. https://t.co/r2aFrjDjHD

Agree Dan. WWDC should show some Apple AI chops.