Gene Munster

Duo still showing Jan 25 delivery date, unchanged since one hour into preorders Friday morning. I would expect sometime this week they take a step back to early January. Feels like on Friday they artificially jumped them to late January to set expectations low. Any lead times after Dec 1 suggest we are off to a good start, even with the limited production.

Grok is taking over my phone usage. $SPCX apps were 50% of my screen time last week. Lots of X (but a lot of that is Grok) plus Grok and Grok Bot. The point is that SpaceX could make a phone optimized for Grok at the OS layer that would beat the iPhone for 50%+ of my phone usage. $AAPL

Duo lead times as of 1:30p ET have stabilized at Jan 25. No changes since 9a ET. I would expect some lumpiness over the next couple of days. Even factoring in supply will be tight with the new form factor, I still believe the early read is positive vs expectations.

Duo seems off to a good start. Micro data point: 5 mins into pre-orders, I’m still not let in. https://t.co/WGMrtSrgt7

Two takeaways from tonight’s Roadster event. 1. It was an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers. 2. Elon can’t wait to bring $TSLA and $SPCX together.

Top speed of 235 mph. Elon says they have to get it to half of a Mach or 384 mph. Start production on 2028. No price.

Just as Apple picks up momentum at adding AI across their products, the goalposts are changing, now focused on the personalized bot. Thats what I’ll be listening for on their September earnings call on Nov 2, moving from AI powered chat experience to a Muse and Grok bot competitor.

Personal AI is a bigger threat to Google than ChatGPT ever was. Surprisingly, shares of $GOOG are up 7% since Muse launched, versus a 3% gain for the Nasdaq. ChatGPT mostly answered questions Google wasn't monetizing anyway. Assistants transact. Google built a $250B search business on routing those transactions. Google’s response is Task, a Gemini feature formerly known as Spark. The question is: can Google do with Task what it did with AI Overviews and AI Mode by successfully redirecting Search traffic to its own AI features?

When it comes to investing in AI there is the weather and the climate. The weather is stormy. The climate is divine:

If Apple gets Siri right, it can be a high-margin annual subscription that boosts services. Maybe even bigger than investors think. 100M paying users at $20 a month is a ~$24B a year business, about 6% of revenue. And that’s a low end example just for scale. I think there could be far more paying users given how useful personal AIs are already. $AAPL From our Apple Fathom with @dougclinton.

$AAPL's “Welcome Home” announcements today should add just under 1% to FY27 revenue. More important is the accelerating pace of product announcements. The “Home” segment represents new revenue for Apple, but the biggest incremental consumer opportunity over the next five years is personalized bots, a category in which Apple has yet to make any announcements, as it’s just getting the Siri chatbot out the door.

Once you've used these personalized bots (Muse, Grok Bot, Dot) the thought of going back to a life without them is painful. This means the transition from the subsidy phase of AI to the paying phase will be smooth, because once it becomes core to our lives, monetization will appear. Just look at Search. That reality helps explain why $META is up 4% today, Nasdaq down 2% on the new Muse Wonder Bot model that they will charge $20 or $100 a month.

Apple's AI risk isn't the iPhone losing out. It's getting boxed out of the services upside. $AAPL If people lock into $META Muse or $SPCX Grokbot first, get their lives connected and workflows set up, and start paying $20+ per month, it will be harder to get them to switch to using Siri in any meaningful way. Siri can be a great personal AI, but Apple needs to move faster. From our Apple episode of Fathom with @dougclinton.

Three weeks into the iPhone cycle, both the iPhone Pro and Pro Max lead times have recently dropped. $AAPL I still believe the cycle is off to a solid start. Now eyes on next Friday when Duo pre-order starts. https://t.co/d7xn2Iqx1p

Elon says he doesn’t want to make a phone. I still think $SPCX eventually will. A vertically integrated handset on a Starlink mobile network could deliver features carriers can’t match, and cheaper service. That’s a bigger problem for Samsung than Apple. $AAPL’s device and services tie-in is harder to break.

"Siri is the one thing Apple put out in the world that never just worked." @dougclinton on our Apple episode of Fathom. $AAPL He's being harsh. Siri is far from perfect, but the new Siri is better than people realize. Apple needs to get the word out. Even more, they need to ship product as fast as $META and $SPCX. That’s the hardest part.

Looking past the market noise today, AI trade fundamentals remain solid. Early this morning $TSM reported Sep qtr revenue +51% y/y, and growth keeps accelerating: Dec-25: +21% Mar-26: +35% Jun-26: +36% Sep-26: +51% Even with TSM down 1.5% today vs Nasdaq down 0.6%, they’re up 6% over the past month vs Nasdaq up 3.5%

We’re still early in the AI buildout. https://t.co/npgYtnisxe

Let’s Set Aside the Pleasantries, Tesla Is Going to Crush Traditional Automakers. $TSLA https://t.co/gWE7Q1kXaU

The EV winter for Tesla is ending. The EV ice age for traditional auto is just beginning. $TSLA Sep deliveries down 2% y/y. GM and Ford down 75%. https://t.co/wu0sCyzu59

Why is $TSLA gaining EV share again? 1. Best bang for the buck. 2. FSD is starting to play more into buying decisions. Both of these are long-term positives.

Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws • For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y. • I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y. • The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September. • The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y. • I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal. • U.S. …

Trump gives the AI trade the green light. https://t.co/Huz4oKsxIZ

I often get asked what skills we'll need to be “successful” in an AI future. After OpenAI DevDay, and using more bots, I'm adding executive function to the list. 1. Creativity, vision 2. Executive function (plan, focus, juggle multiple tasks) to manage bots 3. Empathy, community What will be less valuable is mastering a traditional skill, whether it’s accounting, software development, research, or, yes, asset management. The bots are everywhere: OpenAI Dots, Muse, Siri, Grok Bot, Poke, Instinct, Gemini Spark, and they’re only going to get better.

Announces Ultrafast service. Is 8x faster than the Regular. The price is 6x higher for tokens. My take: Smart move. They're segmenting features into multiple products with tiered pricing with a goal to increase overall revenue.

Second time a voice demo didn't work. My take: They're pushing the utility of voice despite the risk of the demo miss. It's a sign that they see voice as central to the future interface.

dots available for paid users today.

Personalized AI bots will blow the everyday tech user away in the next year. Good news for $SPCX, $AAPL, $META, Cognition. Today, my guess is less than 1% of the US population understands how powerful these new personalized AI bots are. That's going to quickly change. Here at Deepwater, we're testing Siri, Grok Bot, Muse, Poke, and Gemini Spark. In the past month, we have noticed the usefulness of these bots has gone off the charts. Specifically, a number of everyday inefficiencies, like getting caught up on the news, sifting through spam, and prepping for the day, are now reliably automated. And we're just at the start.

This is a bigger week than most investors realize for $SPCX and they’re just scratching the surface. Monday: Starship’s first orbital mission deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Thursday: Three launches. First, a Falcon 9 launch from Florida with four crew members going to the International Space Station. Second, Falcon 9 will launch from California with 103 payloads. Third, Falcon Heavy will launch NROL-97, a U.S. spy satellite, from Florida (a different pad than the one earlier in the day). Long-Term Launch Targets: This year, SpaceX will do about 170-180 missions. In August, Musk said that by 2030, the goal is 30 Starship launches a day…

Even if investors were expecting a good outcome today, the market is underappreciating the significance of the $SPCX launch, with the stock down 1%, in line with the Nasdaq. Today had double and quadruple good news: 1. With the help of some rounding, Starship is about double the size of Falcon Heavy, so reaching orbit with a rocket that massive is a milestone. That means they can get satellites to orbit cheaper and faster. 2. Starlink speeds should about 4x with V3, the first of which went into orbit today. That means new pricing tiers are coming the average Starlink download should go from about 150 Mbps to about 600 Mbps.