Beth Kindig

Bitcoin has fallen 54% from its October high and calls for a bottom are increasing, yet the same signals that kept us on the right side of every major $BTC swing since 2020 still points lower. But the I/O Fund is far from a perma-bear. Instead, we layout the surprising path for $BTC to $2 million. https://t.co/nqd9qo4uMP

Liquid cooling penetration is forecast to rise from 33% in 2025 to 53% in 2026, driven by Nvidia $NVDA and AMD’s $AMD rack-scale solutions as well as Google’s $GOOG TPUs, before rising to 60% in 2027, according to TrendForce. $SMCI $DELL https://t.co/Q3mr1Wa7xh

Alphabet’s $GOOG Waymo has built its own custom chip for its robotaxis utilizing TSMC’s $TSM 5nm process, with the chip offering more than 1,000 TOPS, on par with Nvidia’s $NVDA Drive AGX Thor.

Data center vacancy rates are at 1% for the third consecutive year and are forecast to remain near zero through 2028 with tenants already contracting for 2028 deliveries, per JLL and CBRE. $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $META $NVDA https://t.co/VseJz2dshj

Wells Fargo expects to see upside to Broadcom’s $AVGO $100 billion AI Semi revenue guide, modeling $141.5 billion in FY27, before rising to $205.3 billion in FY28. This compares to consensus estimates for $118.8 billion in FY27 and $168.3 billion. $NVDA $AMD $MRVL

Revenue at the top five largest public NAND firms rose 77% QoQ in Q2, per TrendForce, led by a 99% QoQ increase at Micron $MU and a 90% QoQ increase in revenue at SK Hynix $SKHY, the third and second largest players respectively. $NVDA $AMD

Analog Devices $ADI CEO Vincent Roche: “And you just look at data center alone, if I just take data center, there's expected to be 100 gigawatts equivalent infrastructure built for data centers between now and kind of 2031.” $NVDA $AMD $AVGO

Anthropic is reportedly projecting annual revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028 as it prepares for an IPO, with Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX said to be reference points for its potential valuation. $AMZN $GOOG $NET $PLTR

Micron $MU is planning to spend $10 billion on its new research lab in Idaho over the next decade to advance memory tech, develop new compute systems and support its future chip manufacturing. $NVDA $AMD

Hudson River Trading has signed a multi-year, multi-billion dollar deal with CoreWeave, making it one of the first firms to get wide-scale access to Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips to help build new trading research and models. $CRWV $NVDA

Meta is reportedly spending hundreds of millions per year to access AI models through Microsoft’s Azure, consuming trillions of tokens per week, per a report from Bloomberg. $META $MSFT

Anthropic reported Q2 revenue of $11.6 billion, up more than 145% from $4.73 billion in Q1, and outpacing OpenAI’s $6.7 billion in Q2 revenue, up just 18% QoQ from $5.7 billion in Q1. $NVDA $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT

Apple has trained a custom AI model for China with help from Alibaba, as the company is said to be preparing to roll out Apple Intelligence in the country. $AAPL $BABA $BIDU

Broadcom $AVGO is in talks with lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in debt, including a senior tranche of $60 to $70 billion and a junior tranche of $30 billion, with Blackstone and Apollo in talks to participate in the financing.

OpenAI's ARR has reportedly reached $40 billion, doubling from $20 billion at the end of 2025, but lagging the $47 billion that Anthropic reported in May. $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN

Micron $MU EVP and CBO Sumit Sadana said that memory supply constraints are “most acute in the data center where quite often, we are not able to meet any more than half of the demand our customers have." $NVDA $AMD $AVGO

We sold the 2021 top in bitcoin:native and bought the 2022 low. Since October 2024, we have also been warning our free readers that the bull cycle was nearing an end. Now, with newly released technical analysis, we lay out the roadmap to $2 million for bitcoin:native - and the one major level this bear cycle must hold. https://t.co/nqd9qo3WXh

Nvidia $NVDA is reportedly in advanced discussions to invest several hundred million into data center power developer Cloverleaf Infrastructure, per the WSJ, with the firm having a pipeline of over 10GW of power.

PEG ratio trends across equities show trailing valuation multiples have shifted significantly over the past year. Semiconductors show one of the largest improvements, with PEG ratios falling from 2.6x to 1.2x, reflecting stronger earnings growth. In contrast, hardware increased from 4.8x to 6.5x and communications equipment rose sharply from 2.7x to 9.6x. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO

The I/O Fund is raising our long-term Bitcoin target from $1M to $2M. It may sound extreme, but so was calling the bitcoin:native top near $100K and the previous bottom near $17K. Our latest analysis lays out the technical roadmap to $2 million - and the key level this bear market must hold.

From 2024 through 2026, semiconductors lead versus hyperscalers and the S&P 500 when it comes to EPS growth, with 48% growth in 2024, 52% in 2025 and 97% forecast in 2026. By comparison, hyperscaler EPS growth slows from 41% in 2024 to 19% in 2025 and 17% in 2026, while the S&P 500 grows from 12% to 14% and 24%, respectively. $NVDA $AVGO $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN

Delays have the largest negative impact on AI data center lifecycle value, with a 1.5-year delay reducing value by 8.9% and a one-year delay reducing value by 5.5%. Changes in power costs, taxes, tariffs, depreciation, and natural gas prices have smaller effects, highlighting timely deployment as a key driver of AI data center returns, per Carnegie Endowment. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $META

Major tech and AI-related corporate bond issuance has surpassed $190 billion in 2026, up nearly 80% year-over-year, and is on track to top $250 billion. $GOOG $MSFT $META $ORCL $AMZN

For all of the warrants to vest, Google $GOOG will have to purchase $120 billion of Marvell's $MRVL products from FQ3 2027 through the end of FY 2033. $NVDA $AVGO

For 2027, JP Morgan projects total AI accelerator shipments to rise 43% to 23.3 million, with strong growth from Google $GOOG and Amazon $AMZN pushing custom silicon to the majority unit share at 53%. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO

Global copper consumption in data centers is expected to reach 740,000 metric tons in 2026 before rising 75% to 1.3 million metric tons, or 1.3 billion kg, by 2028. $NVDA $APH $CRDO

Micron $MU: Customers are “all telling us that the #1 constraint they have today, and this is not just 1 or 2 customers, but a common theme across our customers is not power or real estate or data center capacity or logic wafers. The #1 constraint they have is DRAM.” $NVDA $AMD $SKHY

CoreWeave $CRWV: “What we are seeing today is that the upside of recontracting is real as we remain largely sold out of prior generations of Nvidia $NVDA GPUs in addition to the current SKUs. As an example, we recently signed an A100 contract that extends into 2029 at an attractive price.” $NBIS $AMD

CoreWeave $CRWV CEO Mike Intrator: “We expect demand to meaningfully exceed supply for years. In that environment, access to power is only part of the equation.” $NBIS $NVDA $AMD

SK Hynix $SKHY has reportedly resumed investments in its fab in Dalian, China operated by its subsidiary Solidigm, and plans to boost output 50% by 2027 as demand for high-capacity SSDs remains strong. $SNDK $MU